Researchers from Decision Technology, a part-academic, part-commercial research group, has used its computer model to forecast the results of 10,000 games since the last World Cup.
The group claims to have produced "highly accurate and objective predictions ". Brazil is the computer's current favourite to win the World Cup with a 13 per cent chance.
But while Brazil is also the bookmakers' favourite, their odds are unrealistically short, according to the researchers.
The computer also anticipates that the bookies are being overly optimistic for England, which the computer ranks ninth favourite rather than second.
Getting Wayne Rooney back in the team would increase England's odds only slightly, from 4.9 to five per cent.
The easiest group game is England versus Trinidad and Tobago, according to the computer, with an 83 per cent chance of an England win.
However, England's most likely first opponent after the group stage is Germany and the computer rates England's chances as just 40 per cent.
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