Y2K spending is going through a major shift, according to market research firm Gartner Group. By the end of this year, the bulk of Y2K related spending in large US businesses will be outside IT.
Lou Marcoccio, research director at Gartner Group and a widely respected Y2K expert, made the prediction at the Gartner Group Predicts conference in San Diego, during an update on the world?s readiness for the year 2000.
A year ago, virtually all Y2K spending went to IT. But by late 1998, large businesses in the US were spending half of their Y2K budgets on other areas such areas as risk assessment, risk management, contingency planning and contingency implementation. ?By the end of 1999 we will reach a point where 2.5 to three times more will be spent outside IT,? said Marcoccio.
Another prediction: a mere 8 to 10 per cent of Y2K related failures will occur within two weeks of January 2000. 5 per cent of failures have already occurred in 1998 or before, Gartner estimated. Another 25 per cent will occur during 1999, with the number of failures increasing sharply in July, when 6 month forecasting systems start to encounter dates beyond 1999. 55 per cent of Y2K failures will occur during 2000. The final 15 per cent of failures won?t happen until 2001, said Marcoccio.
In the last two quarters, governments and businesses have made significant progress towards Y2K readiness, said Marcoccio. But not all the news is good. ?The gap between the leading countries and companies throughout the world and the laggards has widened extremely during the last two quarters,? he said.
The United States and Canada are well ahead of the pack, according to Gartner?s numbers, with 75 to 80 per cent of systems in US government agencies now fixed or almost fixed. But despite the efforts of the United Nations and the World Bank, many countries are falling increasingly behind. ?Even though this is a gallant effort, it?s not having sufficient impact,? Marcoccio said about the efforts by international institutions.
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