Banging a drum for recentralisation yet again, Bloor Research is predicting that NCs will outnumber PCs in corporate environments within five years.
The Enterprise In Transition, Bloor?s follow-up report to The Enterprise By Other Means, argues the case for IT centralisation on economic and architectural grounds. The analyst group claims centralised computing benefits users by removing the burden of administrative and management tasks, and by providing more capability.
Bloor believes that NCs will destroy the installed PC base, and it warns that even if some PC vendors cross the Rubicon,by moving into NC manufacturing, they will find themselves in a different, more competitive world. Similarly, many disk manufacturers will be badly hurt by the next generation IT model.
The analyst group reiterates that the industry is returning to a centralised model of computing and while it acknowledges that the message is inconvenient and unpalatable to many vendors, it is an unavoidable consequence of the technology developments taking place. The Bloor report argues: ?There should be a prime source for every item of data and every process used within the corporate environment and the integrity of the requirement can only be guaranteed by centralised management.?
The report identifies a visible anti-Microsoft alliance, consisting of IBM, Sun, Oracle, Netscape, Novell and Corel. Technology directions, it says, will be affected primarily by their success and by Microsoft. Sun leads the pack, at least until Java runs its course, and Oracle is repositioning itself as an enterprise software and services supplier rather than a database vendor.
Microsoft's position is complex, adds the analyst group.Windows NT is gaining market share, supporting Microsoft?s other revenue lines, and Bloor expects Active Desktop and electronic banking to become successful. It warns that any attempt to tie Java to Windows will fail, damaging Microsoft in the process. But hile Microsoft has new revenue streams that will mature with time, the group predicts Office software and Windows-based PC revenues declining rapidly and prematurely.
The Web never sleeps is the message that business needs to take onboard, says Bloor. A sinister-sounding ?Cybernation? is growing exponentially. Businesses that ignore the Web will regret it.Copies of The Enterprise In Transition are available at #225. www.bloor.co.uk
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