A Taiwanese memory company has predicted that Motorola?s departure from the Dram market will be followed by a succession of others, with Toshiba as the likeliest candidate.
Roy Taylor, who acts as the agent for Taiwanese memory company Vanguard in the UK, said that Motorola?s departure from the Dram market was just the first of many such moves.
He said: ?We anticipate more US companies and one or two Japanese to withdraw either completely or in some geographic regions from the Dram business.?
Toshiba is likely to be the first Japanese company to duck out of the memory business, followed closely by Hitachi, he predicted. ?You can?t keep making stuff at cost,? he said. ?In the early 1980s, Intel got out of Dram. There?s a cycle to these things.?
He added: ?Toshiba and Hitachi can get out of it and so can companies like [Korean] Daewoo and Hyundai. Samsung has some pretty big commitments and it will be hard for them to leave Dram.?
That will mean bad news for both dealers and end users, said Taylor. ?The bad news is that end users will lose and dealers will get caught with stock,? he said.
No one at Toshiba was available for comment but a senior source at Samsung Semiconductors said: ?I find it very hard to believe that Toshiba will exit the memory market.?
Motorola has a joint venture with Toshiba at Sendai in Japan, and reports suggest that the latter is considering moving away from the memory market into the more profitable semiconductor business.
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