Despite the market hype surrounding such broadband technologies as asynchronous digital subscriber line (ADSL) and cable modems, traditional analogue modems will not die away, according to IDC.
The market for analogue modems will continue because they enable residential customers to access the Internet even if their telecommunications carriers use old technologies.
This led to analogue modem chips continuing to make up 80 per cent of 1998?s $1.2 billion global sales in modem semiconductors, with V90 modems commanding the largest share and likely to continue to do so until at least 2002.
But analogue modems will begin to lose market share by 2002 when they will represent less than 65 per cent of the market. Between 1998 and 2002, ADSL modem chips, including full rate and G.Lite, will achieve 150 per cent compound annual growth rates (CAGR), while cable modem processors will grow by 50 per cent over the same period.
But although the size of global modem chip market increased 3.8 per cent last year, between 1998 and 2002 CAGRs are likely to be flat at 0.2 per cent.
Kimberly Funasaki, chip analyst at IDC, attributed this to users? increasing adoption of controllerless or soft modems that take particular functions such as arithmetic away from a system?s main processor to pass it onto the host processor. The benefits of this technique are cheaper manufacturing costs and small chipsets.
The 56K standards battle is also slowing modem adoption, she added.
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