While the Gartner Group is downgrading the risk from Year 2000, it still believes there will be enough failures to prompt the US to introduce laws to regulate application development.
"There is a 70 per cent probability that some kind of law will be introduced to require developers of some classes of software to be trained and certified according to some sort of defined standards," analyst Paolo Magrassi told the Gartner Symposium in Cannes last week.
Magrassi believes there is an even chance that other legislators in Europe will follow. But such legislation would be "a disaster for IT", he said. "It will be impossible to implement, but the legislators won't know that and they won't care," Magrassi added.
Part of the reason for this will be the predominance of 'amateur' programmers over the next three years.
"We are going to see amateurs who have not gone through the training processes," he warned.
In a hard hitting presentation, Magrassi said that almost two-thirds of all development work would be outsourced by 2003.
But "50 per cent of those projects will result in failure for both sides," he warned.
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