Unit shipments of asynchronous digital subscriber line (ADSL) modems are expected to top one million worldwide by the end of 1999 as sales of slow rate devices begin to overtake those of full rate ADSL.
According to fresh figures from researchers, Cahners In Stat, sales of cable modems continue to be higher than those of ADSL devices, even though cable modem growth has slowed sequentially to 21 per cent.
For the first six months of 1999, 308,000 ADSL modems were shipped globally, with about 35 per cent of them bound for Europe.
Alcatel led the market with a 33 per cent share, while Cisco ranked second with 18.7 per cent, and Orckit came in third with 13.7 per cent.
Shannon Pleasant, a senior analyst at Cahners In Stat, said: "While only a few vendors hold the majority share in the ADSL modem market today, the move towards a retail and PC OEM market over the next 12 months will change the vendor lineup considerably."
She continued: "Cable modems will continue to control the bulk of the market. This year, 2.6 million cable modems are expected to be shipped, with the figure increasing to3.7 million in 2000. However, the number of ADSL modems shipped is expected to grow more rapidly than cable, particularly as vendors launch slow rate G.lite compatible modems aimed at the residential market."
Although she predicted that only 55,000 slow rate ADSL modems would ship this year, sales are anticipated to reach 875,000 units by 2000 compared to the 785,000 full rate devices that are likely to be sold next year.
By 2001, G.lite equipment will enjoy a 75 per cent growth rate, while full rate offerings will see growth of about 50 per cent. This is because slow rate modems are easier to install and do not require users to be close to their central office.
Full rate DSL devices are aimed at teleworkers and people wanting to download large files from the Internet, while G.lite offerings are targeted at general purpose Internet and telephony users.
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