Mobile WiMax will become increasingly insignificant unless spectrum auctions
and commercial rollouts happen before the end of the year, analysts have warned.
Frost & Sullivan has highlighted a range of challenges likely to make the
platform "unfeasible" as a mobile access technology.
However, even if Mobile WiMax fails, the investments will not be completely
wasted as the technology could be merged with 3G LTE systems.
"Recent events have been unfavourable to Mobile WiMax," said Luke Thomas,
programme manager at Frost & Sullivan.
"For example, Sprint-Nextel announced a delay to the commercial roll-out of
its Xohm Mobile WiMax service, and has now stated that the first commercial
service will be in September 2008."
Operators looking at Mobile WiMax must consider the current environment in
which 97 per cent of laptops are shipped with Wi-Fi technology, the analyst
warned.
3G LTE is expected to be a fully ratified standard by the end of 2008, or
beginning of 2009. Deployments are likely in late 2009 or early 2010 offering
peak data rates of up to 170Mbps.
Thomas believes that in 2009 operators will begin to realise that Mobile
WiMax can no longer be considered as a feasible mobile broadband 'access'
technology.
"In terms of indoor wireless broadband, Wi-Fi fits well in this space. With
the emergence of 802.11n, throughputs would be far better than what Mobile WiMax
can deliver," he said.
"With respect to outdoor mobile broadband environments, users would expect
Mobile WiMax to seamlessly hand off to cellular networks in the absence of WiMax
reception.
"In reality this is not possible as Mobile WiMax is not backwards compatible
with existing cellular technologies."
To make matters worse, most stakeholders agree that Mobile WiMax is not
optimised to simultaneously handle data and voice applications as well as other
technologies, making it viable only for mobile internet devices and ultra-mobile
PCs.
"It is still ambiguous whether consumers will want one mobile device for
voice based on cellular technology and another for 'personal broadband' based on
Mobile WiMax," concluded Thomas.
"This is especially relevant considering that HSPA coupled with Wi-Fi can do
both in a single mobile device."
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