Improved modelling methods and better ways of analysing information could
help save the world's forests, according to scientists at Microsoft Research
Cambridge, Princeton University and Universidad de Alcalá in Madrid.
Drew Purves, of Microsoft Research, claimed that the computational modelling
of forest dynamics will play a huge role in understanding deforestation and
climate change.
"The convergence of recently-developed mathematical models, improved data
sources and new methods in computational data analysis could help produce more
realistic models which will help inform how to manage the world’s forests and
understand their impact on our climate," said a Microsoft spokeswoman.
Part of the research is included in the paper
Animal
Versus Wind Dispersal And The Robustness Of Tree Species To Deforestation,
which is written by Purves and Daniel Montoya from the Madrid university and
published in the journal Science today.
The second part of the research was conducted by Princeton's Stephen Pacala
and Purves and appears as the paper Predictive Models of Forest Dynamics in the
same journal.
Pacala's study describes how computational data analysis helped identify
which tree species are at most risk following deforestation.
Forests could be a crucial part of the way the Earth's climate responds to man-made CO2 emissions
Drew Purves Microsoft Research Cambridge
"This knowledge can be used to develop new strategies to mitigate the effects
of widespread habitat loss and help to protect species diversity," a Microsoft
statement said.
There are trillions of trees on the planet, but the effects of changes to the
world's forests are still largely unknown compared with well-researched climate
change factors such as ocean dynamics.
"Dynamic global vegetation models have shown that forests could be a crucial
part of the way the Earth's climate responds to man-made CO2 emissions," said
Purves.
"But insufficient understanding of forests, and insufficient data and
computing power have made their predictions highly uncertain.
"This kind of uncertainty helps climate sceptics who erroneously conclude
that, because the Earth is a complex but poorly understood system, we should not
change our behaviour."
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