Boffins at the
University
of Warwick in the UK have been crunching the numbers to predict which team
will lift the trophy in this year's
FIFA
World Cup in Germany.
Researchers from
Decision
Technology, a part-academic, part-commercial research group, has used its
computer model to forecast the results of 10,000 games since the last World Cup.
The group claims to have produced "highly accurate and objective predictions
".
Brazil
is the computer's current favourite to win the World Cup with a 13 per cent
chance.
But while Brazil is also the bookmakers' favourite, their odds are
unrealistically short, according to the researchers.
The computer also anticipates that the bookies are being overly optimistic
for
England,
which the computer ranks ninth favourite rather than second.
Getting
Wayne
Rooney back in the team would increase England's odds only slightly, from
4.9 to five per cent.
The easiest group game is England versus
Trinidad
and Tobago, according to the computer, with an 83 per cent chance of an
England win.
However, England's most likely first opponent after the group stage is
Germany
and the computer rates England's chances as just 40 per cent.
The
Czech
Republic,
Spain,
France
and
The
Netherlands are among the most under-rated teams, the computer predicts,
with the 20 weakest teams having a 10 per cent chance of producing the winner.
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