Samsung has announced
plans to invest $33bn in semiconductor factories between 2006 and 2012, but
analyst firm Gartner
has suggested that this actually signals a spending "slowdown".
According to Klaus Rinnen, Gartner's managing vice president, the Korean
electronics giant's seven-year plan to invest in eight semiconductor fabrication
lines at its Hwaseong plant actually represents a likely reduction in capital
expenditure as a proportion of revenue.
Rinnen pointed out that, although Samsung is planning to invest "
headline-grabbing amounts", a deeper analysis shows that this is "not the
earth-shattering announcement it might appear to be".
The analyst added that Samsung's capital-expenditure/semiconductor-revenue
ratio will probably be lower during this period than during the previous seven
years.
During 2002-2005, Samsung invested an average of $4.57bn a year, very similar
to the $4.5bn a year that industry leader
Intel has invested during
the same period.
Samsung's new plans increase the yearly average marginally, to $4.7bn, but
this represents a smaller proportion of Samsung's projected semiconductor
revenue.
Furthermore, Gartner's semiconductor industry data shows that, during
2006-2012, Samsung's capital-expenditure/semiconductor-revenue ratio will move
closer to the industry average.
For the past seven years, it has been 10 percentage points above the average.
The analyst firm forecasts that during the next seven years it will decline to
just two percentage points above the average.
"Despite the impressively high level of planned investment, Samsung's rate of
investment compared with the industry average is slowing," said Rinnen.
"We believe this means that Samsung will not be able to grow as aggressively
as it has in the past seven years. The company is maturing as a semiconductor
player, and the slowdown in investment is a natural step in its evolution in the
marketplace."
According to Gartner, all players in the semiconductor industry should
recognise that Samsung is entering the "mature phase of its evolution in the
industry".
Although these impressive investment plans highlight the Korean firm's strong
commitment to semi-conduction, they are unlikely to enable Samsung to challenge
Intel for the number one position, Gartner predicted.
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