If radio frequency identification (RFID) technology grows at the breathtaking
clip so many are projecting, Hewlett-Packard
wants to make sure it doesn't miss being out in front. It's been behind the
curve before, and doesn't want to be there again.
The Palo-Alto, Calif.-based company is dedicating the bulk of a September
technology forum to demonstrating RFID chips it is developing with partner
Hitachi, giving attendees a first-hand
showcase of the next-generation bar coding technology. Guests will experience
everything from retrieving assignments from interactive kiosks to embedded chips
in their event badges, the company said.
The company already puts RFID chips in printers and computers it delivers to
Wal-Mart Stores and other retailers to
help track inventory.
"We've taken the technology seriously, we started looking at it before the
retailer mandates came around," said Frank Lanza, HP's director of RFID
Solutions.
The market is indeed promising, but some experts believe that mandates have
artificially inflated the drive to adopt RFID. In July, two research firms said
that mandates from retailers like Wal-Mart to adopt RFID have caused a premature
rush to market, resulting in overly bullish spending forecasts and failed
expectations
HP's stock has been enjoying a recent upswing under a fresh round of cost
cutting, including over 14,000 planned layoffs, from new CEO Mark Hurd. The
company's shares last traded near a 52-week high of $26.98, up 30% since
February, when Carly Fiorina
departed.
"Mark Hurd's focus on basic operational blocking and tackling and pragmatic
'roll up your sleeves' style deserve some of the credit and will continue to
positively impact results," tech analyst Cindy Shaw of
Moors & Cabot wrote in a research
report.
Of course, sprucing up the balance sheet in the short term only takes you so
far. For a company whose image has grown staid in recent years--its mainstay is
still printers and computers and the company largely missed out on the first big
Internet wave--HP is trying to get back on the cutting edge track.
Lanza said the company will spend $150 million over the next five years
enhancing its capabilities in RFID. That's a tiny chunk of HP's $80 billion in
annual revenue and about 1% of its annual R&D budget. Still, Lanza believes
that's enough to make the company competitive against the likes of
Sun Microsystems and
Symbol Technologies for leadership in the
space.
Future revenue potential will come from selling services that help business
customers set up RFID systems, according to Lanza. Analysts expect the company
will make most of its money by developing and licensing its technology companies
building RFID equipment.
The market for RFID tags is expecting to grow nearly tenfold to $2.8 billion
by 2009, according to market researcher
In-Stat, based on the assumption they'll
gradually make their way from inventory palettes to store shelves. Throw in
services and systems needed to support the tags, and the potential market swells
to over $7 billion.
Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster
believes the RFID market indeed has the potential to reach those levels, though
it's far from certain, given the nation's ongoing debate over speed and
efficiency versus privacy concerns. Indeed, how many people will want someone
else having access to an electronic record of everything they buy, even if it
means getting in and out of a store more quickly?
Also, it remains to be seen how much prices will come down as the product
matures--a common thread in almost all tech products.
"It's one of those things where there is a potentially great market, but it
always seems to be two years away," Munster said.
Still, some predict that by 2009, the ability to swipe everything from a pair
of pants to a bar of soap under a scanner will mean that shoppers will spend
less time in a cash register line. And many see the functionality going way
beyond retail.
Lanza pointed to opportunities in asset tracking. Companies can use RFID
chips to keep tabs on auto and aircraft parts and hospital equipment among other
things.
"I can even see it at a law firm," Lanza said hopefully. "If a case folder
gets lost and you need to be in court in a half hour, what better way to track
it down?"
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