First-generation broadband wireless equipment based on the emerging WiMax standard will start shipping commercially in 2005, but many smaller vendors may not survive long enough to reap the rewards of its arrival, newly released research has claimed.

According to a study released today by market research firm Heavy Reading the first commercial versions of WiMax products should be available by the middle of 2005, with market leader Intel leading the rollout charge.

The first WiMax products will be expected to focus on fixed broadband applications, with products aimed at portable and mobile networking appearing in 2006 or later.

The study, WiMax Reality Check, predicts that WiMax will become a 'significant force' in the emerging fixed/mobile network convergence sector later this decade.

However, it goes on to caution that the combination of a relatively long lead time for technology and market development, an overcrowded supplier market and significant early price pressures will lead to a high attrition rate among WiMax components and systems vendors.

The analyst firm predicts that WiMax will debut as a way to deliver fixed services before expanding into portable and finally mobile services. Initial uses of WiMax will be focused on backhaul connection of network access points to wireline infrastructure.

"The most obvious use of WiMax in this context is for connecting 802.11 'hotspots' to wired networks, but WiMax will also be deployed for backhaul connections of DSL-type services offered by competitive local exchange carriers looking to bypass incumbent-owned wireline networks," said the study.

"Whenever it arrives, WiMax will be a critical network technology force for a long time. Backers have learned from the mistakes of earlier broadband wireless efforts and they've taken important steps toward avoiding such problems as interoperability and business case-annihilating overhead."

Heavy Reading predicts that WiMax promises a better-performing, less expensive alternative to many technologies that already serve its target applications.

Although competition will be fierce on the equipment side, it will quickly drive down costs for users and service providers, in turn improving the chances that WiMax will be much more than a niche play, according to the research.