A majority of Java projects will fail because of a continuing lack of skilled programmers and the high salaries they command.

Mark Driver, research director at Gartner, said there are currently around 2.5 million Java programmers in the world, but only around 800,000 of those have genuinely appropriate knowledge. The rest are either home taught or college leavers with little business experience. He said it costs up to three times more to recruit and keep Java programmers than Microsoft Visual Basic experts.

Driver said companies should be worried about this because Java has become a de facto standard for ebusiness systems and will coexist with the Microsoft world, rather than be an either/or option.

"Java is here to stay. It has made its transition to the mainstream," he told delegates at Gartner Symposium/ITxpo in Florida this week.

He calculated that 50 per cent of all ebusiness projects will involve Java and that 70 per cent of those will not see the light of day because of the skills shortage.

Although companies will use both Java- and Microsoft-based development tools, medium and large organisations are more likely to "gravitate towards" Java because it better supports heterogeneous environments. On the other hand, smaller companies will use Microsoft because its tools are cheaper, added Driver.

In addition, as a single language Java better supports a range of client devices such as browsers, midrange systems and database engines. The benefit is that companies can train staff in the language and ensure that their knowledge can be used on a variety of projects.

"It's not 'write once, run anywhere'," he said, referring to the original claim by Java supporters that 'it's train once and write anywhere'.

However, not every company may be able to meet the cost of training staff. Gartner calculates that it costs $65,000 to retrain Cobol programmers as Java developers, when the necessary education and pay rises are included.

Java tools fall into three categories. At the high end is Java 2 Enterprise Edition, and although Driver believes this version has just begun to mature as a technology, there are still risks associated with using it because it is "pretty proprietary", he said.

The most mature technology is Java 2 Standard Edition, which is the most commonly used version, while Java 2 Micro Edition is a new arrival. The latter is aimed at leading-edge developers that want to put Java on credit cards or mobile phones.

Driver said that large scale Java projects should only proceed with external help to ensure that companies have enough of the appropriate skills, and to treat Java as a platform rather than just a language. In conclusion, he warned: "Don't believe every [CV] you read."