The dot-com bust of 2001 was devastating not only to the internet industry,
but also to global telecoms, as job losses reached about 500,000 and a number of
firms were forced under. The effects of that particular recession lasted a long
time, and just a short while after the situation appeared to have stabilised
itself, the industry stands faced with yet another global economic downturn.
The mobile industry is not alone in feeling the pain of this recession, with
very few industries immune, but that offers little comfort to a sector which
knows the toughest times may still be yet to come.
Firms like Canada's Nortel have already cracked under the economic pressure,
filing
for bankruptcy back in January. Ericsson has already had to
axe
5000 jobs, Motorola has recently
laid
off 4,000 employees as part of what it calls an "existing cost cutting
strategy" which has already seen 10,000 jobs go, and even Finnish phone giant
Nokia has announced
layoffs
and factory closures.
Financially, the climate is bleak as consumers rein in spending. Motorola
recently posted a 25 per cent sequential decline in handset shipments to 19
million units, Sony Ericsson's shipments have slipped by 1.5 million units from
25.7 million to 24.2 million, and Nokia, Samsung and RIM also all shipped less
in the fourth quarter than previous analyst estimates.
Back in November, mobile network operator Vodafone announced it would be
cutting costs by approximately £1bn pounds, and other operators quickly followed
suit as analyst firm Frost & Sullivan predicted 2009 would be "arguably the
toughest economic year since 1992".
At Mobile World Congress in Barcelona this week, the downturn was the topic
everyone wanted to talk about. Surprisingly, however, the consensus seemed to be
that rather than the financial crisis causing the problems in the mobile
industry, it has simply acted as a catalyst to an unavoidable situation.
The main reason most point to for this inevitable fall from grace is that
mature mobile markets have been under increasing pressure over voice costs, made
more acute by additional regulatory pressures. With customers wanting to spend
less and maximise their money's worth, mobile carriers are finding they have an
uphill battle to win or even just keep customers, which is taking its toll on
revenues.
"What we're going through is more of a fundamental economic reset as opposed
to a recession and it's going to take some time before economies around the
world really re-establish themselves and we get consistent growth again," said
Microsoft chief executive Steve Ballmer at the unveiling of Windows Mobile 6.5
at MWC. "No industry is immune to this economic reset, including the computer
industry and the mobile industry. And as people struggle throughout the world to
really make every dollar count they're going to expect us in the mobile industry
to offer devices and services which offer greater and greater value."
Even the emerging markets, which many firms have pinned their hopes on, are
not providing much cause for optimism of late. Whereas customers in the
developing world may be able to scrape together enough to buy an entry-level,
basic £15 handset, firms are discovering those same people are highly unlikely
to splash out a further £40 for an upgrade.
In mature markets, too, people are replacing their phones with much less
frequency due to longer contract lengths and loyalty incentive programmes. These
offer SIM-only contract tariffs, allowing customers to forego a new handset in
exchange for reduced usage costs.
So what can the mobile sector do? The answer is far from clear cut. There is
talk of carriers temporarily contracting their spending for three to four
quarters until the market picks up again, but many also see this as a danger
which could result in a spending glut.
There is also much discussion over whether carriers should continue to
channel money into new markets, which usually require hefty infrastructure
investments, or cut back and focus on markets where they already have an
established base. On this, opinions are very much divided, with some analysts
saying that a scale back in emerging markets makes sense, while others point
out emerging markets are where all the growth is going to be in the future.
Also, a focus on emerging markets does not necessarily have to be as
expensive as many believe. Vodafone best illustrates this by frequently
transferring its resources from market to market, helping to offset investment
costs. When Vodafone decides to roll out a next-generation infrastructure in the
mature market, it redeploys its old systems to the developing world. This is a
model many seem keen to follow.
Speaking during a keynote about future investment and expansion at MWC,
Vodafone's chief executive Vittorio Colao called for more collaboration across
the mobile industry as a way of beating the recession.
"We must be smarter in how we co-operate with content suppliers, device
vendors and equipment manufacturers," he said. "There is a growing pressure on
consumer pricing and an increasing threat of commoditisation."
Clearly, operators will have to make tough decisions about where their
capital expenditure goes, especially if they are involved in substantial
international investments. Ultimately it will be the smaller, unaffiliated
carriers that will face a sterner test than their larger competitors because
they are not big enough to raise the capital needed to diversify and effectively
compete.
The general mood appears to be that the time is right for significant market
consolidation too. Companies like
Nokia-Siemens
and
Alcatel-Lucent
may be just the first in a long line of mergers owing to persistent price
pressure.
Doubtless the mobile industry will be hard hit by this crisis and job losses
will likely reach unprecedented levels. Within this depressing reality, however,
some are finding cause for optimism, predicting the crunch may help the industry
shed some of its dead weight, streamline itself and push forward.
Do you agree?
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