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Windows 8 may not be available until 2013, according to an analyst quoted by Reuters, despite Microsoft's many statements that the software is expected to be available around the middle of 2012.
The analyst, Michael Cherry of Directions on Microsoft, said that the inevitable delay between the OS being released to manufacturing (RTM) and when vendors will have it ready-loaded on new machines could easily push availability of Windows 8 into early 2013.
This analysis would seem about right to my mind, given that Microsoft has only recently made available a developer preview version of Windows 8, and has yet to deliver a single beta version.
Looking back at the progress of Windows 7 as a guide, Microsoft first previewed this in October 2008, before releasing the first beta in January 2009, hitting RTM in July, and general availability in October.
Given that Windows 7 was a relatively minor update of Vista, while Windows 8 introduces some quite radical changes to the user interface and APIs, I would expect its development timeline to take at least as long, which makes mid-2012 seem somewhat optimistic to deliver the final release.
Microsoft could still surprise us, but I now expect to see a beta in January (probably at CES in Las Vegas), with RTM possibly coming in late summer at the earliest. So we might just see machines shipping by Christmas 2012, but don't bank on it.
18 Nov 2011
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