Apple iPad will account for two-thirds of tablet market in 2011

Gartner has waded into the debate over whether Apple or Android will win the device operating system war, predicting that Apple's iOS will account for 69 per cent of media tablets in 2011.

The analyst firm said that the iPad will continue to dominate the market until 2015, enjoying more than half of tablet sales for the next three years.

Some analysts have said that Apple’s dominant hold on the mobile device market will loosen, and that Google’s Android will reach nearly 50 per cent of the smartphone market by 2016, while Windows Phone 7 smartphones will outpace Apple and RIM.

However, Apple is set to remain a market leader in the tablet space until at least 2015, when its share will fall slightly to 47 per centt, according to Gartner.

This success is down to Apple’s dominance in the mobile application development market, where it currently claims an 83 per cent share with its App Store, according to Carolina Milanesi, research vice president at Gartner.

Milanesi stressed that this richer ecosystem is a stronger pull for consumers than the tablet form factor itself, as smartphone users want to buy a tablet that runs the same operating system as their smartphone.

“Many vendors are trying to compete by first delivering on hardware and then trying to leverage the platform ecosystem,” he said.

Milanesi added that many tablet makers are mistakenly prioritising hardware features over applications, services and overall user experience.

“Tablets will be much more dependant on the latter than smartphones have been, and the sooner vendors realise that the better chance they have to compete head-to-head with Apple,” she said.

Google’s platform does not lose out, though, as Gartner also forecast that Android will increase its worldwide tablet market share from 20 per cent this year to 39 per cent in 2015.

Meanwhile RIM’s QNX OS, developed for the BlackBerry PlayBook, will offer a consistent experience across the company's product portfolio and create a single developer community. But building a rich ecosystem like Apple’s will take time, added Milanesi.

“This will limit RIM’s market share growth over the forecast period to mainly organisations that will be interested in RIM’s tablets because they either already have RIM’s infrastructure deployed or have stringent security requirements,” she said.

Gartner also warned that nascent platforms such as MeeGo and WebOS will have limited appeal on a tablet unless they can grow their currently weak presence in the smartphone market.