Mobile app sales to reach $58bn by 2014

Revenues from mobile application stores will grow by 1,000 per cent over the next three years to reach $58bn (£36bn), according to new figures from Gartner.

The analyst firm said that 17.7 billion applications will be downloaded this year, rising to 185 billion a year by 2014.

Stephanie Baghdassarian, a research director at Gartner, argued that the huge popularity of app stores is more than just a passing fad.

"We strongly believe there is a sizeable opportunity for application stores in the future. However, applications will have to grow up and deliver a superior experience to the one that a web-based app will be able to deliver," she said.

"Native apps will survive the web enhancements only when they provide a more personal and richer experience to the 'vanilla' experience that a web-based app will deliver."

Apple started the trend with its App Store, and the hype spread through 2009 and 2010 as more stores gained traction. Newer entrants, such as Android Market, Nokia Ovi Store, Samsung Apps and RIM's App World, have emerged as strong competitors, the report said.

Free applications account for 81 per cent of all app store traffic. Gartner explained that this percentage has been decreasing since 2008, but is likely to rise again during 2012 and 2014.

The increased interest in tablet devices will add to the application download demands, according to Gartner.

"While the average number of downloads per device onto a smartphone will remain stable as the market grows, it must be assumed that media tablets will drive more downloads from consumers, boosting the overall average downloads per device," said Carolina Milanesi, a research vice president at Gartner.

Apple has a stranglehold on the market, and is unlikely to loosen its grip with the arrival of new competition.

"We estimate that Apple's App Store drove close to nine application downl oads out of 10 in 2010, and will remain the single best-selling store across our forecast period through 2014, although to a lesser extent as other stores gain momentum," Milanesi added.