How the wireless world will fare in 2001

Despite the hype surrounding third generation networks (3G) barely a quarter of the expected 1.3 billion wireless data users around the world will access the network in 2010, predicts an industry consultancy.

Among its other predictions for the rest of the decade, Strategy Analytics, formerly BIS Strategic Decisions, believes that Samsung will replace Ericsson as one of the top three global handset manufacturers, and that the majority of voice traffic will be sent over wireless networks as soon as 2005.

Cliff Raskind, an analyst at Strategy Analytics, explained that success in porting content to the wireless world will depend on effectively meeting users' requirements for safety and security and reinforcement of beliefs and values.

"The reality is that 3G networks will not deliver, nor is there pent-up demand for the interactive multimedia applications that would require data rates in excess of 384Kbps," he said.

The firm expects global wireless data revenues to reach some $450bn by 2010, with entertainment applications surpassing messaging-oriented services as the dominant revenue source.

Strategy Analytics also believes that Samsung will replace Ericsson as one of the world's top three handset vendors as a result of both better geographic balance and superior product segmentation.

"Ericsson continues to slip in the Americas and lacks a presence in the fast growing CDMA market [code division multiple access which is primarily used in the US]," said analyst David Kerr. "Conversely, Samsung is growing well in Europe with GMS in addition to its leadership position in CMDA in Korea and the Americas."

He said Samsung has developed a broad portfolio of products ranging from high-end concept phones to entry level but feature-rich devices. "Samsung is committed to broad participation in the marketplace while Ericsson has continued to struggle in serving entry level and mid range devices. Ericsson seems likely to follow the path of Motorola and sacrifice market share for margin in the global handset business," said Kerr.