19 Feb 2008
A US scientist claims that machines will achieve human-level artificial intelligence within the next 21 years.
Dr Ray Kurzweil, speaking yesterday at the American Association for the Advancement of Science, described a future where machine intelligence will surpass that of the human brain as computers learn to teach and replicate among themselves.
Dr Kurzweil is one of 18 influential thinkers, along with Google founder Larry Page and genome pioneer Dr Craig Venter, chosen to identify the great technological challenges facing humanity in the 21st century by the US National Academy of Engineering.
"The paradigm shift rate is now doubling every decade, so the next half century will see 32 times more technical progress than the past half century," said Dr Kurzweil.
"Computation, communication, biological technologies such as DNA sequencing, brain scanning, knowledge of the human brain, and human knowledge in general are all accelerating at an ever-faster pace, generally doubling price-performance, capacity and bandwidth every year."
Miniaturised 3D chips with vastly improved performance made out of biological molecules will drive a merging of man and machine, thanks to devices implanted in the body to boost health and intelligence.
"3D molecular computing will provide the hardware for human-level 'strong artificial intelligence' by the 2020s," said Dr Kurzweil.
"The more important software insights will be gained in part from the reverse engineering of the human brain, a process which is well under way. Already, two dozen regions of the human brain have been modelled and simulated."
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RESULT??
So, wont this bring more unemployment?
Posted by: jaime mandiwa 01 Oct 2008
I doubt it will take that long...
What the prediction probably doesn't take into account is the current trend toward degradation of human intelligence. As both curves appear to be exponential and travelling rapidly in opposite directions I think we are talking about matching human intelligence in... oh... about two weeks I reckon. What do I base this on? I scanned my freeview TV channels the other day with Factual selected, and to my dismay there were about three programs on BBC (I live in the UK), and they were about cooking and antiques. I think a Z80 could keep pace with that level of intelligence, in fact my doorbell has been behaving a little strangely lately and choosing who it rings for. On a more serious note, what is seldom discussed is what is actually meant by "intelligence". I would perceive it to be the ability to think independently of conditioning (and that's incredibly rare even in humans), or at least to be aware of ones own conditioned responses even if not able to change them. I'm not sure if computer hardware is capable of developing abstract conceptual self aware thought to this degree without first matching our biological complexity, existing in complex multi-unit societies similar to our own, and possibly visiting the Dalai Lama of course. Dispite our so-called intelligence, we still manage to behave in the most ignorant and disgraceful tribal manner towards each other. Do we really want machines to emulate that? Yeh, ok, Vista comes pretty close but that's not quite what I meant! :-)
Posted by: David Lambert 20 Feb 2008