Mozilla predicts Firefox majority by 2013

Firefox could overtake Internet Explorer by 2013

Mozilla is predicting that Firefox will overtake Microsoft's Internet Explorer as the browser of choice by 2013.

Asa Dotzler, director of community development at Mozilla, made the prediction in a blog posting after analysing usage data for browsers since 2004, when Firefox was first released.

The data shows a steady decline in Internet Explorer's market share from over 90 per cent in 2004 to under 70 per cent today. Firefox, meanwhile, has risen from nothing to over 25 per cent.

Oddly the features of the different browsers seem to have very little effect on market share, suggesting that Microsoft will not regain share just by producing a better browser.

"What's interesting here is that browser releases aren't having any major impact on the macro trends," said Dotzler.

"Now, this isn't to say that browser releases don't matter. I could imagine a chart that looks radically different were Microsoft or Firefox to not have had the releases they did in this period.

"Still, it's interesting that the trends are so very linear and that major releases from Microsoft and Mozilla don't match even the impact of the nominal seasonal changes."

Firefox has certainly proved popular with the majority of vnunet.com readers, and is already the browser of choice for the majority of internet users in Europe. Recent security scares also seem to have little effect.