Flash to rule notebook market by 2009

Notebook buyers are expected to fall for hybrid drives in a big way

Nearly 60 per cent of all notebooks will be powered by a solid state or hybrid hard drive that combines Flash memory with a traditional drive, analyst firm iSuppli predicted in a new study. 

The remaining 40 per cent will be claimed by traditional hard drives, but notebook buyers are expected to especially fall for hybrid drives.

ISupply said that hybrid drives will make up 54 per cent of the ultra mobile segment by the end of 2009, and 58 per cent of mainstream notebook sales.

So-called solid state hard drives that use Flash memory can expect respective market shares of 28 per cent and 25 per cent.

As Flash memory lacks any moving parts, it offers better data retention and power efficiency than traditional memory. The chips also achieve higher data transfer rates.

Flash technology is more expensive, however. Dell started offering solid state memory last month as an optional feature at $549. A standalone 60GB hard drive costs roughly $55. 

Combining the two technologies allows users to obtain some of the benefits of Flash because it reduces the need for a hard drive to spin. It also reduces the technology's cost.

Flash prices, meanwhile, are expected to continue dropping. In 2003 Flash memory was about 100 times more expensive than hard drive storage a on per-gigabyte basis. ISupply said that the price gap will have shrunk to a factor of 14 by 2009.

Intel unveiled 1GB, 2GB, 4GB and 8GB solid state hard drives earlier this year and promised larger models for the future.  

Intel targets its solid state drives at low-cost systems with minimal storage requirements. The chipmaker expects that Flash will be less expensive than hard drive technology in those segments.