16 May 2009
Pretty much every new product gets hyped as a potentially disruptive technology these days, and usually nobody outside the company's marketing department actually believes it.
Every once in a while, however, a product comes along that everyone from the executives to the analysts to even the crusty old reporters thinks will change the IT world. Sadly, they are often misguided.
Sometimes the product really does set the industry on its ear, but all too often it falls flat on its face. This week, we look back at those that did the latter: potential game-changing products that fizzled out.
Honourable
mention: Biometrics
Iain Thomson: Biometrics was supposed to be the magic bullet
that solved all our security needs. Look in any film where they are trying to be
futuristic or hi-tech and you'll see people getting their body scanned as a
security measure.
However, the reality has proved less than we were promised. Fingerprint readers are in wide circulation, but they are easily fooled these days with cheap materials, or by more direct means. Taiwanese robbers reportedly cut the finger off a man whose car had a fingerprint ignition, something that led scanner manufacturers to install a temperature sensor in future models to prevent a repeat.
Facial scanning was also touted as foolproof, and then quickly found to be anything but. Even DNA fingerprinting is now being questioned, either because the chemistry is defective or the lingering possibility that an individual's DNA may not be unique. Hell, they still haven't proved that fingerprints are unique.
Maybe one day we'll come up with the ultimate biometric solution, but I have my doubts.
Shaun Nichols: One of the problems with biometrics is that people don't really want it. As much as we love movies about cyborgs and futuristic bio-scanning systems, few people are comfortable with actually allowing machines to analyse and classify us on that sort of level.
While locks that require a palm or thumb print are emerging for high-security applications, the 'big brother' implications of taking the technology to the masses are too much for most of us.
As Iain mentioned, there are also some rather unpleasant ways to thwart such systems. Anyone who bothered to sit through Demolition Man remembers the, well, 'creative' way in which Wesley Snipes was able to get through the retinal scanning machine. If someone is determined to get into my place of work or residence, I'd rather they do so by picking the lock than by hacking off a body part.
Honourable
mention: Ubuntu
Shaun Nichols: We're no doubt going to catch some flack for
this one, but deep down even the hard-core evangelists will agree that Ubuntu
has thus far been something of a disappointment. While Linux has definitely
caught on in the enterprise server and database markets, the open-source OS has
never really been able to move into the greater market.
Those who do use Linux as the primary OS for their home or work PC are still, by and large, tech-savvy users who comprise what used to be known as the 'hobbyist' market. The larger end-user crowd has not been able to warm up to Linux.
Ubuntu was supposed to change that. When the OS was launched, I remember all my Linux-advocate friends predicting that this would be the product to make the jump and challenge Microsoft in the consumer and workstation spaces. Nearly five years after its release, Ubuntu remains popular among Linux users, but has yet to really pick up any sort of real momentum in the greater desktop OS market.
Yes, getting rave reviews from the Linux community is nice, but get back to me when the housewives and pensioners, not just the IT pros and college students, start dumping Windows for Ubuntu.
Iain Thomson: Shaun nearly killed me with this suggestion. He and I come up with these lists over a lunch in the office in a convenient room with decent soundproofing and I'd just taken a mouthful of Vietnamese pork sandwich when he mentioned his desire to put Ubuntu on the list. I narrowly avoided the need for a Heimlich manoeuvre.
But the more he explained his position, the more I came to agree. Maybe it was just the overenthusiastic marketing or the fanboys who swarmed to the system, but Ubuntu really was supposed to change everything, whereas the operating system landscape looks very much the same these days.
Don't get me wrong, I like Ubuntu and have it running on a home system. But unless a major manufacturer starts preinstalling it it's going to be confined to the Linux enthusiast and the hobbyist market.
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Do you agree?
Vista had to win
Just because it has disappointed and hacked off more users than any other product in history. I spend a significant part of my life helping friends install XP on newly bought computers! However my interest is voice recognition because, if it worked, it would revolutionise computer use -if only I could dictate to my PC. The problem is that the voice recognition software vendors just don't admit how bad things are and keep making out they are moving from 99.5 % to 99.9% when in fact they haven't really got past 90%.
Posted by: Paul Milligan 02 Jun 2009
Is Vista really as bad as he says?
Now I thought Windows ME was bad. I have 5 copies of Linux running, 2 OpenSuSE & 3 Ubuntu. My partner runs Vistacrap & although the man says it is worse than ME I disagree. I think it's been unfairly described as an operating system. It's just not. It's a poorly developed program that requires a lot of hardware. The problem is that no-one yet knows what it is that Vista is for or what it does. When we find out then we should criticise it for being a crappy whatever it is.
Posted by: Rex Alfie Lee 30 May 2009
Vista ain't so bad.
Lets face it, no Windows (and probably not any other OS) has ever been good right out of the box. True, Vista was a mess when it came out, but the stuff about high hardware requirements isn't really true. Every version of Windows so far has had roughly doubled hardware requirements, especially with RAM, over the previous. What is annoying, however, as you say, is the 'Vista Capable' sticker given to anything that might just boot with all the Vista visuals turned off.
Posted by: JH 26 May 2009
Add smartphones and streaming video to the list
Great article! Deeply satisfying to see Vista make #1, it is an obvious slam dunk for the spot. Even my young kids dislike Vista, without having been told anything about it good or bad. Add smartphones/cell phones to your list. The US has missed the mark wide compared to the rest of the world which is now 2 generations past us with GSM work in any country and SIM cards which let you change carriers on a whim. Our model of 2-year service agreements have made US mobile phones a joke in the rest of the world. Add video / streaming video to your list. This has been out for many years, and comes no where near working acceptably for no particularly good reason. With so many video formats out there, and jumbled format like AVI, most players cannot play most content without adding codecs, a hit-and-miss proposition at best. Even when it does play, lips not synced to sound happens too often on many systems.
Posted by: gringopete 23 May 2009
ubuntu needs mainstream applications
Ubuntu, or any new operating system, needs mainstream applications before it will get widespread adoption. My needs are simple - a decent office package, and a very good photographic imaging package. OpenOffice had promise, but that was nearly ten years ago ... its still nowhere near the flexibility and ease of use of Microsoft Office 2000, in any of the component parts. GIMP - well I haven't looked at it recently so it may have improved, but to get photographers to move it would need to be much closer in capabilities to Photoshop, including handling large files. It misses a large part of the capabilities of Lightroom, too, so a good library package is needed too, preferable with a degree of integration. A great operating system with poor application support is of little use, and for most users it will be harder to switch applications than operating systems
Posted by: mike 18 May 2009
fingerprint story is apocryphal!
Interesting story, nice to read - but the first example isn't true. I don't doubt the idea of carjackers hacking off a finger, just the possibility of it opening any doors. The systems suppliers factored this in when they designed the technology. Fingerprint sensors on cars use active capacitance technology - their scanning technique won't work unless the finger in question has an electrical field running through it, so chop off the digit and it won't open anything anymore.
Posted by: Matt 16 May 2009
Disappointing Writers?
Whilst I agree that Ubuntu is currently unlikely to make much of an in road into the mainstream (all Linux is about 1%), It's getting closer. It really does need a much more user friendly main installation and program installation. But as it's free for a geek it's great. And I have it installed, dual booting with Vista 32, (around 25% of Windows users) according to Google analytics on some of the web sites I manage. I think it was a mistake to put Vista at number one, unless it's a case of any publicity is good for the writers? I still need to run Vista, as I have applications that don't run on Linux and I haven't found a suitable replacement yet !!. I initially installed it as it came with a new notebook, and as I carry out IT support, I thought I'd better keep it to get familiar with it. Initially it was awful, it had 1Gb memory and was giving me some grief, I ran it for quite a few months like this as I was in Canada at the time, and the memory was silly prices. When I returned to the UK in December 2008 I fitted 4Gb, only uses 3Gb as I opted for a 32 bit installation, as I still have some useful 16 bit utilities. Well what a difference, It does need over a 1gig just to run my basic install and I have noticed using up to 2Gb with Email, Browser, Open Office and Google earth running. Haven't bothered checking when I'm running, Turbocad or Dreamweaver as they haven't been a problem. Tor did give me some problem for a while, it kept dropping out most sessions, but either Tor or Vista updates have cured that problem. I am now finding Vista more robust than my XP computers, and as I have recently read that version 7 looks like it's going to be all of 5% faster than Vista, which most people won't notice. As far as security goes I installed Comodo firewall Pro a long time ago (ZoneAlarm didn't have a Vista version), it's still rated number 2 firewall on matousec.com and it's free. Again this isn't to user friendly with all the pop-ups but it works and is probably more for geeks. I haven't bothered changing the default settings as I like to see what's happening on an update or install. When XP first came out 256Mb of ram was comfortable, now it needs 1Gb if you want it to boot as quick as possible for most installations. I also remember having problems with getting quite a quite few things working, particularly graphics cards. But it gradually got better and more robust and reliable than W2K. I've fixed a lot of gear in my time and there ain't to much works faultlessly straight out of the box, general purpose PC's are the most difficult thing I've ever had to trouble shoot cause the goalposts are always moving, when one thing gets updated it screws something else up. Just in case you want to know, I've spent 50 years trouble shooting electronic systems, with the last 30 including computer systems. Experience doesn't mean you know it all, but neither does a degree. It's learning by experimenting and from your mistakes along the way.
Posted by: chexxer42 16 May 2009
Excellent article
One of the most thorough articles I've come across. Very entertaining. It really is a pity that good and useful technologies like Bluetooth never take obtain mass appeal because manufacturers think they can control their customers by making their systems incompatible with others.
Posted by: Bhagwad Jal Park 16 May 2009