Linux set for world domination

Linux will flourish at the expense of Windows and Unix, and Red Hat may win out as the standard version of the open source operating system, according to Goldman Sachs.

The investment bank's Fear the Penguin report said that Linux is now considered enterprise-class.

It warns that vendors need a clear Linux strategy for ongoing success, and favours Red Hat over UnitedLinux in the race to become the 'standard' Linux.

"Linux has evolved into an enterprise-class operating system," the report said. "[But] the majority of corporations still appear to view Linux as a nascent technology that is not yet enterprise-ready."

Goldman Sachs added that Linux would thwart Microsoft's efforts to move further up the enterprise food chain.

"Although Windows is cited as the leading server operating system, it primarily functions in the lower end of the server market," said the report.

With Windows remaining dominant at the low-end, including on the desktop, Goldman Sachs said that the largest opportunity for Linux is for "servers on which higher-end, mission critical enterprise applications and databases are run".

It quotes figures from analyst IDC showing Linux market share rising from 16 to 25.2 per cent over the next three years at the expense of all other server operating systems.

And Goldman Sachs insisted that IT departments moving from Unix/Risc to Intel would invariably choose Linux. "It is also possible that Linux could exert pricing pressure on enterprise versions of Windows," it added.

Roger Whittaker, UK Unix User Group council member, and technical consultant at UnitedLinux supplier SuSE, agreed with most of the findings.

"SuSE is also seeing a move away from Microsoft, and there is serious interest in a Linux desktop," he said.

Whittaker explained that SuSE's release of a Linux desktop during the next quarter is in response to demand, and dismissed the report's view that "the only viable pure-play Linux vendor is Red Hat".

He pointed out that, while Red Hat is dominant in the US, it is not in Europe.

Because Linux source code is freely available, independent software vendors have the opportunity to contribute to the operating system's development, leading potentially to faster return on investment and faster functionality increase, according to the report.

Conversely, for vendors that 'lock-in' customers using the proprietary Unix stacks, "a clear Linux strategy [is] becoming critical to ongoing success", said Goldman Sachs.

Open source software is increasingly finding a place in the business world.

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