Linux suffers, but prospects look good

Linux is on a "slope of disillusionment" but it will become one of the three primary server environments by 2005, said industry researcher Gartner.

"There has been tremendous hype [about Linux] and now we are on a slope of disillusionment," Gartner analyst George Weiss told delegates at the company's Symposium conference in Florida this week.

"There are high expectations that Linux will become an infrastructure server and support Windows NT and legacy systems, but this won't happen soon," he added.

Weiss, who is well known for his strong views on Linux, said the operating system suffers because it is a fragmented environment, there is a lack of adequate Linux skills, and because organisations prefer to get service and support from a well-known vendor rather than from a community of "enthusiasts".

"People are at their wit's end trying to deal with Linux," said Weiss.

He also suggested that software code needs to be proven and stable before it can manage mission-critical applications, and Linux changes too much day by day to provide stability.

Although Linux may not be ready for prime-time processing yet, the open source operating system will be one of the three primary server environments in 2005, said Weiss. By then, 80 per cent of the market will be shared between Linux, Windows 2000 and Unix, and 80 per cent of the Unix market will be controlled by HP-UX, Sun Solaris and IBM AIX.

Also by 2005, Microsoft will have begun to gain ground with Windows 2000 Datacenter Edition as it proves its stability, while Linux will gain the lion's share of the embedded systems and low-cost server market, said Weiss.

Gartner believes there are three types of servers: edge servers or server appliances that serve very specific functions, such as storage management, or are embedded systems; general purpose front-end processors that are usually symmetric multiprocessing systems running Windows 2000 or Linux; and number-crunching database and transaction processing back-end workhorses that run multiple workloads.

Weiss said the biggest growth potential for Linux is in server appliances, which could impact traditional mid-range systems as they become more powerful. However, smaller mid-range systems will not reduce their functionality to compete with server appliances.