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12 Aug 2008
Analyst firm Gartner has urged firms to strongly consider Web 2.0, service-oriented architecture and cloud computing technology if they want to drive forward business transformation.
The Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2008 report describes Web 2.0 as about to enter the "Trough of Disillusionment", but adds that it will return in less than two years to have a transformational impact on organisations.
"Web 2.0 has been hyped a lot, to the extent that many investors view it as a bubble, but in most cases it has not delivered tangible business value," said report author Jackie Fenn. "We believe that it will follow the hype cycle and, following initial disillusionment, progress eventually to large-scale shifts in creating intellectual capital and decision-making."
Cloud computing and SOA, which deliver "a more flexible and agile IT capability", will have the same impact as Web 2.0 in a slightly longer timeframe – two to five years – according to Fenn.
Other technologies that will likely achieve mainstream acceptance in two to five years include microblogging, social computing and telepresence, said the analyst firm. However, Fenn argued that all of these technologies would vary in their impact depending on industry and organisational requirements.
"The main message of the hype cycle is that organisations need to make sure that when they adopt technologies early, they do so for the right reasons – because it is aligned with an area where it is important for them to innovate, not because everyone is doing it," she argued.
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Web 2.0 Is Like Pornography
Like so many tech articles posted since Tim O'Reilly coined the term in 2004, this one references "Web 2.0" as if it were something tangible?or at least a concept with clear, concise definition. It is not. In 2006, Web founder Sir Tim Berners-Lee sagely observed that "nobody knows what it means": http://tinyurl.com/y6ewzy In 2007, Michael Wesch put together this video that supposedly "explains what Web 2.0 really is about": http://tinyurl.com/6pdz2q It is a cool video. But the message is all about XML and how it can be used to separate form and content. There was no mention of CSS and XHTML, but no matter. I was writing XML parsers in the ?90s, and XHTML/CSS web design pre-dates "Web 2.0" as well. And now in 2008, the most honest thing we can say is that "Web 2.0" means whatever the techno-marketeer (ab)using it wants it to mean. Otherwise, why would intelligent people like Isaac O'Bannon still be writing articles asking "What is Web 2.0?": http://tinyurl.com/5solok And, why would McKinsey's just-released best-of-breed report entitled "Building the Web 2.0 Enterprise" ... http://tinyurl.com/6sxls7 ... include no attempt at defining the term other than to list the "Web 2.0 Tools" that comprise or enable it? And even there, the chief ingredient is identified only as "Web Services", adding more mystery to the mix as one ethereal term is offered up to explain another. As originated in an Onstartups.com website design posting... http://tinyurl.com/576sgs ... "Web 2.0" is like pornography: Nobody has defined it, but you know it when you see it. Bruce Arnold, Web Design Miami Florida http://www.PervasivePersuasion.com
Posted by: WebDesignMiami 12 Aug 2008