15 May 2010
Last week we looked at great science fiction writers, and the list provoked something of a storm. We knew it would and some of the criticisms were valid, although a few were off the wall.
However, in keeping with the theme this weekm we're going to look at technologies we'd like to see for the future, be they predicted by science fiction writers or otherwise.
Future speculation is at the heart of science fiction writing and it's also notoriously difficult. Arthur C Clarke was famously bad at it, predicting a manned Mars landing in 1994, and Hollywood is even worse, as Escape from New York and Death Race 2000 show.
The IT industry has its share of howlers too, from the view that telephones were so important that every city should have one, to Bill Gates's notorious predictions on memory.
Nevertheless, it's important to dream of better things if it inspires the real side of life. Many inventors talk about being inspired by stories and ideas of the future and this is particularly true in the IT world.
A good number of business plans that got first-round venture capital funding in the late 1990s were masterpieces of this. Most fell by the wayside, but some persist.
So here's our long-term look at what we need for the future. As for the feasibility of some of the things we suggest only time will tell but, as ever, we welcome your comments.
Honourable
Mention: 100 per cent contraception
Shaun Nichols: This isn't an item I was big on, as it doesn't
seem to have much of a connection to the IT industry, but Iain made a pretty
compelling argument.
The IT industry is playing a key role in biomedical research more than ever, and if there's a solution out there, it may well come from the tech sector.
Better methods of contraception have been a goal of science for centuries. The advent of the birth control pill brought about major shifts in culture around the world and since then we have been looking for a fool-proof way to prevent pregnancy.
There are currently options that are near-perfect, but all have their drawbacks. Hormone treatments can have unpleasant and dangerous side-effects and often need to be taken on very strict schedules to be effective. Surgical procedures are quite effective, but can be extremely difficult and painful to reverse. Condoms and IUDs are prone to failures both structural and human.
Some advocate abstinence as a fool-proof method, but that's about as likely as ending organised crime by sitting all the mob bosses down and giving a stern lecture on civic values.
If science can develop a convenient and 100 per cent effective method for contraception, it could solve any number of medical and culture issues we are currently saddled with, particularly if it can also stem the spread of disease.
Iain Thomson: I confess I had an ulterior motive, Shaun. We found out this week that IT has a direct input into contraception.
The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has given $100,000 to researchers at the University of North Carolina who are studying the use of ultrasound to make men infertile.
The team found that an intense burst of ultrasound to the testicles sterilises them for around six months, providing a low cost, non-hormonal contraceptive. As was remarked on The News Quiz, we hope that Gates doesn't rush this one to market like so much of Microsoft's output, otherwise version one of the treatment will be a bloke with a mallet.
However, on a more serious note, global population has to be curbed. We're now approaching seven billion people on the planet and that isn't sustainable in the long run.
If population could be controlled the stresses on the planet could be significantly lifted and the lives of many people made better. There are dangers, to be sure, as China's current shortage of women shows, but population control is a necessity for the long-term health of the planet.
Honourable
Mention: Wetware
Iain Thomson: Wetware, or internal computers, are beloved by
many of the cyberpunk school of science fiction but they've been fact for a long
time. Pacemakers have been in use since the early 1960s, and human/machine
interfaces are constantly being worked on.
We're already seeing the first crude attempts with devices that control a computer screen using brain waves, but the real breakthrough will come if a way can be found to implant computer hardware and software in a way that it can be controlled and accessed by the mind.
The advantages of having an internal hard drive enabling encyclopaedic knowledge and the fast learning of skills is still in the realms of science fiction, but there are a lot of people working on making this fact.
The road to wetware will be hard and we're going to see some very grisly mistakes along the way I suspect. There is some evidence that implanting electrical devices can increase cancer rates, and the possibilities of a malware outbreak are frightening.
Imagine having a pop-up window flashing penis extension adverts (I confidently predict men will always want more, even in the far future) onto your eyeball every five minutes. There is also a danger of becoming too dependent on augmented devices, since if they fail it could imperil the user.
But the advantages of such a system would be immense. Wetware would allow real-time health monitoring, enhanced reactions or abilities and the ultimate always-on system. Humanity would initially baulk at widescale adoption but I suspect the benefits would outweigh any squeamishness.
Shaun Nichols: There's also the fear that you load too much data into your brain, causing irreversible damage and turning yourself into Keanu Reeves.
Jokes aside, there's immense promise in the field of wetware. Implanted computer systems could be vital in tasks such as eliminating cancer cells or regulating the levels of insulin in diabetics. Perhaps even brain implants could treat mental illnesses triggered by hormone deficiencies.
Of course there are worries that the technology will be used to horrible ends, but that sort of concern has accompanied just about every advent from radiation treatments and X-rays to organ transplants.
If we're not all currently ending our vacations floating in bathtubs full of ice with only one kidney, I highly doubt we will all suffer an epidemic of brain-born computer viruses.
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Do you agree?
Read JBM's comment...
I've often found this series to be boring as bat dung so was pleased I read JBM's comment & won't waste my time
Posted by: Rex Alfie Lee 23 May 2010
top 10 technologies we,d like to see
my priority is a version of adblock plus for bloody tv adverts!
Posted by: michael john oborny 18 May 2010
Seriously . .
this makes the Sci-Fi list look positively rigorous! Lets' take a small selection of points: - It is pretty well established that the population bomb has gone off and that global population will start to decline in the coming decades. - it is equally well established that the single most effective way to reduce birth rates is female literacy. - DNA computing does NOT imply living computers. - Light speed travel MUST be possible because otherwise i would be just so inconvenient! Really? Thats what you're putting up against the last century of Physics research? Give up the '10 things' lists - the well is dry.
Posted by: JBM 18 May 2010