WiMax faces uphill battle for dominance

WiMax wireless wide area networking faces a more uncertain future than some companies would have us believe, speakers at the WiMax Technology Forum have warned.

Panellists at the Forum, which forms part of this year's London-based Wireless Lan Event technology show, claimed that WiMax faces stiff competition from established wired and wireless rivals, and uncertainty over spectrum allocation.

However, concerns over hardware standards were described as misplaced, and there is no sign that Chancellor Gordon Brown will charge excessively when the spectrum is sold off.

The panellists all agreed that the competitive environment for WiMax will be tough, and that it will have to co-exist with cellular and DSL services.

"If the device is mobile then it will probably use cellular [connections]," said Ravi Rajagopalan, director of technology and solutions at Lucent Technologies.

"If it is a portable computer then my bet is on WiMax. As for fixed broadband then wired connection speeds will hit 20Mbps very soon and that will predominate."

Rather than competing on technology alone companies will have to use services to sell WiMax to the market. In this respect the cellular companies hold a big advantage as the market for mobile phone services is well established.

"It's all about services," said Roger Skidmore, vice president of advanced technologies at wireless manufacturing firm Wireless Valley.

"None of these technologies will be good enough to dominate in isolation. The established companies with relationships with their customers will succeed."

All the manufacturers on the panel agreed that the transition from 802.16d to 802.16e is not a problem and that the two standards could co-exist happily.

But there was a clear divide between those panellists who believe that WiMax should operate in a licensed environment, or an unlicensed environment where competing systems may not work together.

"The biggest opportunity is in an unlicensed market," said Skidmore. "There are more applications for the technology in the unlicensed model."

But Rupert Baines, vice president at wireless systems developer PicoChip, believes that WiMax would be dead in the water without licensing.

"If it's unlicensed then Wi-Fi wins," he maintained. "It's established, cheap and it does exactly what it says on the tin. But WiMax will bloom in a licensed environment."

The panellists also believe that there will be no repeat of the £22.5bn treasury bonanza after the 3G spectrum was sold off.

Rajagopalan was at the Ofcom meeting when the issue was discussed and it was made clear that it is "not the purpose of Ofcom to help Gordon Brown's spending plans".