vnunet.com analysis: will iPhone ring up the sales?

Will Apple have as much success with its first mobile phone as it managed with its first MP3 player?

Hype becomes reality today as Apple's much discussed iPhone makes it out of shops and into consumers' pockets. 

But will the company have as much success with its first mobile phone as it managed with its first MP3 player?

"The iPhones will fly out the door in the first several weeks, as the 'got to have one' customers swamp Apple, but the real question is what happens come September?" Jack Gold, founder of product research firm J Gold Associates, told vnunet.com. 

"Will it be as hot then once we get through the initial demand? And what happens around the holidays? That will be the really big indicator of how successful the iPhone is."

Richard Prati, chief executive at American Technology Research, expected around one million units to ship by the end of 2007, although he admitted that this figure was conservative. 

"The $500 to $600 price tag could be restrictive but it is not likely to matter for the first few million units with the early adopters," he told vnunet.com.

However, a report by analyst firm Parks Associates suggested that the market may not be as big as Apple expects. 

"Only three per cent of US consumers expressed a strong interest in purchasing the iPhone at a $499.99 price point with a two-year contract," said Kurt Scherf, vice president and principal analyst at Parks Associates.

The high retail price of the phones aside, the other problem that could affect US consumers is that the iPhone is only available with an AT&T contract. 

"If you already have a phone with another carrier, it will cost you $200 to get out of it so you can go to AT&T, the sole provider of the iPhone service," said Gold. "I think this will give many people pause for thought."