Global mobile revenues to hit $1tn by 2015

Worldwide mobile phone revenues will reach $1tn (£649bn) by 2015, a year later than originally anticipated, according to analyst firm Ovum.

The delay has been caused by the economic crises of the past two years, combined with a maturing market that has affected growth and sales, the analyst firm said in its Global Mobile Market Outlook: 2010–15 report.

The number of mobile connections will increase to 7.4 billion in the next five years, with China, India and Indonesia expected to contribute 2.8 billion connections alone by 2015, some 38 per cent of the total.

Ovum said that the proportion of global operator service revenues from the Asia Pacific region will rise to 31 per cent by 2015, while Western Europe will fall to 19 per cent from 23 per cent.

Steven Hartley, report author and Ovum principal analyst, told V3.co.uk that, while the growth looks impressive, there are plenty of issues that network operators must consider in the coming years.

"In developing markets, there is a lot of consolidation starting to happen as cities become saturated for coverage, forcing operators out to newer, more rural areas where margins are reduced due to a reduction in population," he said.

"In mature markets, operators face a reduction in the revenues they are generating from voice services, which provide high margins, to data services that provide lower margins and require more investment to keep up with new technologies like LTE."

However, despite this, and numerous reports focusing on the growth of mobile data, the number one revenue generator for operators until 2015 will be voice services. However, revenues for data will overtake voice at some point between 2015 and 2020.

"In 2009, voice revenues worldwide were $660bn [£429bn]. By 2015 they will be $608bn [£395bn], while data services, including SMS, will rise from $209bn to $393bn [£136bn to £255bn] by 2015 and we could see the two areas swap positions in markets such as Europe before 2020," Hartley said.

"In North America, though, the two are already set to cross by 2015. While operators need to be aware of the continued strength of voice services, they are increasingly set to become low-cost enablers of agnostic networks for application services."

Hartley explained that, while revenues for third-party applications are expected to grow by 41 per cent in the next five years, this figure will reach only 10 per cent for operators.

"Content is not king for operators, it's communication. Operators need to focus on delivering coverage, connectivity and network access," he concluded.