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18 Jun 2008
Web traffic volumes will almost double every two years from 2007 to 2012, driven by video and web 2.0 applications, according to a report from Cisco Systems.
Increased use of video and social networking has created what Cisco calls 'visual networking', which is raising traffic volumes at a compound annual growth rate of 46 per cent.
Cisco's Visual Networking Index (PDF) predicts that visual networking will account for 90 per cent of the traffic coursing through the world's IP networks by 2012.
The upward trend is not only driven by consumer demand for YouTube clips and IPTV, according to the report, as business use of video conferencing will grow at 35 per cent CAGR over the same period.
Cisco reckons that traffic volumes will be measured in exabytes (one billion gigabytes) by 2012 and will reach 552 exabytes by that time.
Soon after 2012 we will have to adopt zettabytes (one thousand billion gigabytes) to express traffic volumes.
The report is based on Cisco's own predictions and aggregates analysis from several market research firms.
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good idea but
Good idea, but when your customers stop getting YouTube because they refused to pay your ransom, it wont be YouTube losing that battle. Apply a reasonable cap, say 2 GB per day after cap, throttle download to 500kbps per day ONLY during peak times , 3pm to 11pm
Posted by: KS 18 Jun 2008
A modest proposal
I was profoundly affected by this problem several years ago. I was manager of telecommunications for a large regional Dial Up ISP. We performed an analysis of the increase bandwidth required as Modem technology improved and use of the Internet increased and determined that eventually profits would disappear and we would be operating at a loss. The company decided to sell their customers to a national ISP because the constant cost of upgrades made continuing the operation impossible. The ISP's latest solution to this problem is to apply caps to a users account and then bill them when they exceed their allotment. My solution is to have the ISP's charge the websites sending streaming traffic to their networks for carrying that traffic. Websites that do not want to pay will have their traffic blocked. The streaming websites can negotiate with the ISP's for the allowed bandwidth and committed information rate through the ISP's network. That way the ISP's can recover the cost of upgrading their networks and the subscribers rates will not be affected.
Posted by: Matthew L 18 Jun 2008