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06 Aug 2009
Internet metrics firm Net Applications has changed the way it calculates the market share of operating systems and browsers, and the results have hit Apple hard.
Net Applications is one of the key internet intelligence firms and had based its market share data on the number of hits received on its 160 million-strong computer network. However, the firm has decided that this approach is too US-centric and has changed the methodology.
"We have implemented retroactive country-level weighting in our reports. This means that we adjust our reports proportionally based on how much traffic we record from a country versus how many internet users that country has," said the company in a statement.
"For example, although we have significant data from China, it is relatively small compared to the number of internet users in China. Therefore, we now weight Chinese traffic proportionally higher in our global reports. This change produces a much more accurate view of worldwide usage share statistics."
The estimate of Apple's operating system share has fallen from 9.77 per cent to 4.73 per cent based on the new methodology, while the Safari browser dropped from 8.4 per cent to 4.21 per cent and the iPhone fell by over 50 per cent.
By contrast the estimate of Linux operating system market share rose by over 18 per cent to 1.17 per cent, and Microsoft saw a modest increase in its estimates.
The recalculation was also bad news for Google, since it boosted the share of China's Baidu search engine to nine per cent of the global market, giving it 51 per cent of its home market.
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Do you agree?
MS increased share is mostly pirated OS
It's interesting that the shift in market share is mostly attributed to PCs in China where (according the MS) about 80% of the installed Windows OS are pirated. This is also good news for Linux as China is pushing hard for it's people to use it's own Linux distribution - Red Flag. I guess as this progresses we can expect to see some significant shift in the numbers. I really don't see this as bad news for Apple or Google. The fact is Apple are enjoying good sales, and Google looks less of a monopoly, so why would they care how these numbers look?
Posted by: DaveB 07 Aug 2009
Good News for Apple Investors - Apple Market Share Estimate Drops
I bought Apple stock when the market share was pegged at about 2%. I thought it was the best computer available, easier to use than the competition, and had zero viruses to worry about, a huge consideration. So, I figured these things might cause it to grow. And if it went to 4% that would be a doubling. And that came to pass. As did even more growth. Every earnings report in the last 4-5 years has had record growth, record margins and record profits. Apple now has about $35 billion in the bank and no debt. So, if these new numbers mean Apple is actually smaller than was thought, versus its competition then that means there is even greater remaining opportunity for Apple. For the fact is that Microsoft Windows is dead. A lot of people don't know it yet, but it is true. That is the reason there has been no real move for users to shift from XP to Vista. There is no worthwhile innovation, but a huge cost to get there. But those MS users who switch to Apple simply never look back. Bottom line - the entire MS user base will switch one day to Apple (a few tech weenies to Linux) and the Apple base will remain where it is. So, Apple's market opportunity just grew by a lot. Prepare for more record growth, record margin increases, record profits and some seriously happy investors.
Posted by: Kent Ramsay 06 Aug 2009
Wrong
Net Applications attempts to measure the installed base not market share.
Posted by: Pete 06 Aug 2009