Fixed voice disappearing rapidly in EU says analyst

Europeans are hanging up on fixed line calls as they move more and more to mobiles, according to a new report by analyst group Analysys.

The report, titled The Acceleration of Fixed–Mobile Substitution in Western Europe looks at the relentless progression to fixed–mobile substitution (FMS) and the driving forces behind the change.

"In many markets it looks as if fixed voice is going to suffer not the slow and lingering decline many have predicted, but a rather rapid one," said Dr Alastair Brydon, the report's co-author.

"At the current rate of traffic migration, 90 per cent of all voice minutes in Finland will originate on mobile phones by 2008."

After several years of usage stagnation, the average outgoing mobile voice usage per subscriber increased by 23 per cent during 2006 and five Western European markets already saw more voice minutes originate on mobile networks than on traditional voice and broadband networks combined.

Finland had the highest level of fixed–mobile traffic substitution in Western Europe in the fourth quarter of 2006 when mobile-originated calls accounted for 67.6 per cent of all voice traffic.

However, not all countries are hooked on mobile phones as much as Finland – for instance in Germany only 24.3 per cent of its voice traffic originated on mobile phones in the fourth quarter of 2006. But even this is a 6.8 per cent increase from the same period in 2005, marking the accelerated uptake of fixed-mobile substitution.

"What is particularly worrying for fixed-line operations is not that FMS is happening, but the pace at which it is happening," said Rupert Wood, principal analyst at Analysys.

"Of course, fixed-network operators are looking to different sources of revenue for growth, but the accelerating decline in core voice revenue is damaging at a time when they are embarking on long and expensive next-generation network re-engineering programmes."

VoIP appears to have little impact on the migration of voice traffic to mobile networks and in fact the research indicates that it appears to release consumer cash for additional spending on mobile services.