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15 Aug 2006
The mobile version of WiMax wireless wide area networking technology (802.16-2005) will overtake the current fixed version (802.16-2004) by 2008, technology experts predicted today.
Analyst firm ABI Research believes that mobile WiMax will be here "sooner than many people think".
"ABI Research sees fixed WiMax sales hitting a peak in 2007 and then levelling off," said ABI principal analyst Alan Varghese.
"Mobile WiMax will start to see deployments in 2007, and the crossover point between the two will be late in 2008.
"Considering that it takes a year to design ASICs and then more time to design them into end-equipment, vendors up and down the value chain need to be discussing the required tradeoffs in their strategy meetings now."
Performance, power consumption and cost requirements for WiMax integrated circuits become much more challenging on the mobile platform, the ABI report stated.
WiMax integrated circuit companies such as Beceem Communications and Runcom would seem to be very well placed, according to the analyst, since they bypassed fixed WiMax and went straight to the mobile platform.
But they are being shadowed by companies such as Redpine Signals, RF Magic, Sequans, Sierra Monolithics, Telecis and Wavesat, which have honed their skills through deployments in fixed WiMax.
Competition will also come from giants such as Fujitsu and Intel which understand the mobile platform intimately all the way from RF to applications.
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WiMAX vs WiMAX
Isn't it interesting that all we hear WiMAX Mobile competing with is WiMAX Fixed. Analysts seem to ignore the fact that by the time WiMAX Mobile becomes available, in any quantity, most major US Metro markets will have a deployed Wireless Mesh or one in the process of being deployed delivering 6-10MBps to all the standards based 802.11a/b/g Laptops/PDA and Smart Handhelds. Key to this is both the very high speed links as well as the fact that the Wireless Mesh Networks will not have to address the customers handhelds (no $$$) since all of them will be able to operate over these new Mesh Networks. Not only will WiMAX have to deal with new CPE based chips (new $) but the manufactureres of these new Mobile WiMAX Radios will have to spread their development and production costs over at least 2 Spectrums: 2.3 & 2.5 GHz in the USA (3 in the rest of the world). Not to mention the Korean WiMAX products. So much for economies of scale. The other big issue they will have to deal with is the Physics of the 2.5 Spectrum, which will not allow a signal to penetrate foliage effectively, regardless of the power of these base stations. Most of the SUCCESS STORIES I have read about with the new WIMAX 2.5 & 2.3 GHz radios have worked nicely in a Line of Site environment and have not been shown to operate through the normal Metro Market Canopy. Another issue here is the rapid development of the standards based off-the- shelf WiFi products in the areas of Speed/Reach/Security and QoS. Many of the features WiMAX is pushing. Unfortunately some of the big money in the WiMAX world has been focused of delaying the real WiMAX killer product and that is the intentionally delayed 802.11n products. Also: Wait until the FCC auctions off the 700MHz and White Space (400MHz) broadcast spectrum. At that point WiMAX may have a chance of delivering on what the Forum has promised all these years. Unless of course the FCC opens up some of this new spectrum to Unlicensed services, then all the bets are off. SO much to consider as our analysts continue to spew forth what the big boys are providing and not asking the real question: "Who really benefits from any of this"? Jacomo
Posted by: Jacomo 16 Aug 2006