Storm clouds gather over Microsoft

My friend Karen is a non-techie: she is a trained journalist, works on a local newspaper and now wants to get connected from home. She's thinking about going freelance and wants to send stories to her commissioning editors by email and to browse for leads on the web.

But like most new recruits to the digital world, she knows little or nothing about technology. "I want to write my stories in [Microsoft] Word, then send them to my editor in a format he can read and I don't want to pay a lot of money for something I can't understand. I want to use the programs I learnt on at college," she explained.

She went on to buy a PC from a backstreet bespoke maker, which did everything she wanted in performance terms, but the system did not include any brand names she recognised such as Internet Explorer, Word or Outlook Express.

After vacillating over the matter for weeks, she finally took the machine back and had the entire range of Microsoft software installed. And now she's happy.

New users are like that - they aren't concerned with Microsoft chairman Bill Gates' alleged quest for world domination, or the old duel between Apple and its Macintosh and Microsoft and Windows. They just want hardware and software that do what they say on the box.

The knock-on effect
So will the final outcome of the long-running antitrust saga between the US Department of Justice and Microsoft affect average users such as Karen? And will the launch earlier this month of a formal investigation by the European Commission into the software giant's activity in the server market have any additional impact?

Analysts have conflicting views. Graham Lea, an Amsterdam-based Microsoft watcher and member of the Computer Law Association, believes there are several issues to be considered.

"There will be the possibility, if Gates fails to win a legal appeal, for consumers to have real choice in what they buy," he said.

"Real competition could exist in the marketplace. At the moment, Microsoft appears to force manufacturers of machines to pre-install Windows, and if you go into any high street computer retailer you just can't find anything other than Windows."

As a result, he claims that reducing Microsoft's influence over the market could lead to better quality software for UK computer users. "The number of bugs that are shipped in some of this Microsoft software is quite horrific. The programs are also vastly oversized, with lots of duplicated or redundant code," claimed Lea.

But alternatives to Microsoft's so-called bloatware are already available. "I use a browser called Opera [www.opera.com] all the time. It's about twice as fast as Internet Explorer and takes up less than 2Mb of hard disk space," he said.

On safe ground?
With regard to Microsoft's pleas to the US Supreme Court not to hear its appeal against the verdict that it broke antitrust laws, Lea argued: "If Gates' tactic of pushing this case further to the US Court of Appeal succeeds, I think it will ultimately win through."

"This is due to the make-up of the Court of Appeal - judges there are political appointees and I think it unlikely that a Republican-dominated court would decide against Microsoft. It would be like making a judgement against America itself," he added.

According to Lea, who was invited to sit on an European Commission committee to look at Microsoft's business practises, one judge was even found to hold the supplier's stock early on in the US case, and had to withdraw from any further involvement.

But not everyone agrees with Lea's assessment of the situation. "The way Judge Penfield Jackson has written up his findings leaves very little room for a higher court, such as the Court of Appeal, to interpret things differently," said Clive Longbottom, an analyst at Strategy Partners.

"It's pretty much a done deal. What Gates and Co should have been doing is putting a positive spin on the Penfield findings and going along with it. Wall Street would have liked that. If it had done that, instead of continuing this case, the share price might even have risen," he added.

Testing times
Longbottom believes that if Microsoft is split in two, as Judge Penfield Jackson has requested, the price of the supplier's software will inevitably increase.

"Just look at iMac takeup in this country. It's a fraction of what it is in the States," he explained.

"Apple's always had an easy-to-use interface that loads up quickly and runs without bugs. So why do the general public still buy PCs in vast numbers? It's because the market is accessible - there's a vast amount of games, programs and so on. Breaking Microsoft in two won't change that situation," he argued.

But what about European Commission moves to censure Microsoft? "I don't think Gates is worried a lot about a 'fleabite' from the Commission," said Longbottom.

But Lea disagrees. "The Treaty of Rome Competition Provision broadly defines European competition law - and it is much more effective than US anti-trust curbs, which are now 110 years old and were set up for another purpose," he said.

"European Union law is much tougher, and takes account of real life. There is a provision called 'Abuse of a dominant position', which could do the trick."

But he adds: "Lawyers are the worst possible people to use to deal with technology cases in the courts. They are often technologically incompetent. They were after all, the last people in the land to use quill pens professionally - and they took ages to abandon the typewriter."

"The law has shown that it is too slow to understand technology and the speed at which it is developing. The Computer Law Association is trying to tackle this, however - moves are under way."

So what can users do themselves if they want to try alternatives to Microsoft's products or even boycott them entirely?

Ten minutes spent browsing the web shows a vast number of anti-Gates sites, happily publicising other browsers, email programs and so on. One of the better ones is www.msbc.simplenet.com/thealt/internet.shtml.