Cisco chief John Chambers is expecting traffic growth rates of up to 500 per cent
Cisco predicts online video boom
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07 Dec 2005, Tom Sanders in Santa Clara, California , V3
Video delivery over the internet will push traffic growth rates by 300 to 500 per cent, Cisco chief executive John Chambers said at the company's annual World Wide Analyst Conference in Santa Clara, California.
Service providers in Japan are already experiencing such growth rates, as they have started experimenting with internet television services. Europe and North America grow at an annual rate of about 100 per cent, Chambers said.
The increase in network traffic is sparked not only by the move to high definition broadcast signals, but by the addition of new services.
"All television will be broadcast over the internet. [At sports games] they will not have one camera angle but 40 camera angles. You can watch the game from any angle you want," explained Chambers.
Broadcasters in the future will also add communication features that allow users to set up a video conference with friends and family and watch a game together or exchange messages about a show they are watching together.
The new services will force television to evolve from delivering plain data to becoming interactive. But this will make it hard for network equipment vendors such as Cisco to deliver the right solutions.
"Video is an art, not a science. Making it work is really, really difficult, " Chambers warned.
Charlie Giancarlo, Cisco's chief development officer, added that network speeds are far more important for online video services.
Where multi-second delays might be acceptable when surfing the web, consumers are expecting instant results when they change channels on their television sets.
But Cisco is confident that DSL providers will be forced to move to internet television. "For wireline service providers their future depends on the successful deployment of video to their customers," said Giancarlo.
"Without video, their wireline services can be usurped by cellphone or cable companies. They have to deploy something that only a broadband company can deploy, and that is video."
Cisco placed a big bet on the success of internet television last month when it paid $6.9bn in cash for Scientific Atlanta, one of the world's largest makers of television set-top boxes and digital video recorders.
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