Top 10 technology visionaries

Autumn is upon us and, along with the falling leaves, comes the second conference season of the year. Spring and Autumn are the two big seasons for such events and it's not over yet.

We've had IDF, OpenWorld and MAX 2009, and RSA Europe and the Web 2.0 Summit are just around the corner. There's been a host of people telling us all about where the industry is headed, so this week we're going to talk about the men and women with vision who've been successful in doing just that.

The following list is filled by people who have driven innovation and change. We've all had great ideas in idle moments that are either forgotten or impractical, but these are people who identified technological advances and made them happen.

Visionaries are what has made the industry what it is today, but they can also be dangerous people. To the established order they are game-changers, able to wipe out five-year business plans with a single idea.

But they can also be hell to work for. If the vision is wrong the company can go under after all, and many of the people listed here have taken a wrong turn or two in their pasts. But all have (eventually) recognised this and changed tack; that's what makes them visionary and not fundamentalist.

Honourable Mention: Larry Ellison
Iain Thomson: You might think Larry Ellison only makes the list because of Oracle OpenWorld 2009 this week, and to an extent you'd be right. But there's more to it than that.

People are inspired by many things in life: it could be a beautiful sunset, a falling apple, or seeing a burning bush after too many odd desert mushrooms. Larry Ellison was instead inspired by databases, and used his vision of the future of data to build Oracle into a huge corporation.

But there's another facet to Ellison's vision: only he can see the way. It's not uncommon in Silicon Valley, but it made Ellison rich beyond the dreams of avarice. He could have sold out to a company like Microsoft, but Ellison will never be happy playing second fiddle so he's stayed in command and built a company with billions in the bank and a solid customer base. But he's been wrong in the past too, as the NC project showed

When we sat down to draw up the list, Ellison's name was on there, but kept moving down the rankings. It's a reflection of the strength of the rest of the list that he only gets an honourable mention.

Shaun Nichols: Ellison's ability to see the direction of the industry often gets overlooked by the success of his company and his own outrageous personality and lifestyle, but none of that would have existed had Ellison not seen a huge opportunity where few others had even bothered to look.

To describe what Oracle actually does nearly puts an audience to sleep. Databases are an incredibly mundane topic, far less glamorous than things like home computers or video games. While Oracle may not have had the public appeal of its Silicon Valley brethren such as Atari and Apple, it has become arguably the most successful company from that era.

Ellison also displayed great vision in what he didn't do. Over the life of the company countless new products and markets have come and gone, but Oracle has proven for the most part very methodical and cautious when it comes to acquisitions, and they tend to pay off for Ellison and the company more often than not.

Honourable mention: Marc Benioff
Shaun Nichols: Today nearly every software vendor is using some sort of web-based service. Be it under the label of 'software-as-a-service' (SaaS) or 'cloud computing' or whatever other buzzword you prefer, companies are scrambling to get their products running not just on the local computer, but over the web.

While Marc Benioff wasn't the first to offer a web-based application, he has certainly been among the most vocal and successful advocates of the concept. Launching his Salesforce.com customer relationship management tool as a browser-based service, Benioff was largely laughed at by bigger firms such as SAP and Siebel. These days, Benioff's doing the laughing, as Salesforce is a billion-dollar enterprise and rival vendors are scrambling to offer comparable services.

Iain Thomson: Meeting Salesforce.com staff in its early days was kind of like running into a pack of Scientologists They were scarily committed to the SaaS vision and saw it as their role in life to spread the word.

Fervent religions often kick off because the followers are laughed at or ridiculed, and for Salesforce.com this was particularly true. After all, who would be willing to entrust their key business data to a third party and only be able to use it when they had an internet connection?

Well, it turns out that a hell of a lot of people are happy to do just that, and SaaS is now one of the key growth areas of e-commerce. But now that Benioff has turned out to be right in his vision, could could Salesforce.com please stop being so messianic about the whole deal?

10. Seymour Cray
Shaun Nichols: Some would argue against putting Cray on this list, but the longevity alone of the systems he designed and developed earn him a place. The machines he built were literally years ahead of anything being done by the competition.

For decades Cray's designs were at or near the top of the list of the world's top supercomputers, at a time when the Cold War was raging and the market for high-performance computing (HPC) was far larger and more competitive than it is today. Many of the concepts and designs that Cray introduced still influence the design of large datacentres and high-performance systems.

Iain Thomson: Shaun's being very polite; I argued about putting Cray in the list. Thankfully it wasn't a 'two holds and a submission' fight because Shaun had some good arguments to back up his case.

At first glance Cray did nothing more than build big systems. But when you dig down he actually laid the foundations of the HPC business. He showed what big iron could really do, once it was out of the hands of IBM, and laid out principles that are still followed today in high performance systems.

Cray reminds me of the automotive world's Koenigsegg. Sure, the end product is ridiculously fast and complicated but just look at the power.

9. Bruce Schneier
Iain Thomson: Schneier has done more to consider the practical aspects of computer security than pretty much any other person.

Schneier literally wrote the book on modern cryptography but, while some are content to rest on their laurels, he has taken the debate further and built a life considering all aspects of security, IT and otherwise. He is the kind of man who makes security snake-oil salesmen run for the hills, because he knows his stuff and isn't afraid to speak uncomfortable truths.

From a computer perspective his books Applied Cryptography and Practical Cryptography are must-reads for anyone interested in the field, but I would also recommend Beyond Fear, which takes a general look at the whole concept of security and how it is addressed.

Some visionaries are a pain in the neck to listen to, as they have their heads in the clouds and can't explain simple concepts without launching into a 15-minute sidetrack. If you ever get the chance to see Schneier speak grab it with both hands, he's funny, engaging and very, very interesting.

Shaun Nichols: When Bruce Schneier speaks, everyone from the most hardened of security researchers to the general technology journalists sits down and pays attention. That's because he not only knows what's going on right now, but sees how things will develop.

As Iain touched on, he also has a great knack for cutting through the hype. At this year's RSA conference, everyone was going on about how cloud computing was going to change everything and how companies needed to radically adjust their approach to security.

Schneier didn't see it that way and did a very good job of pointing out that cloud security really isn't that much different from regular network security, and that things really didn't need to change that much.

8. Bill Gates
Shaun Nichols: Many would argue that Bill Gates was able to build much of Microsoft's empire by being in the right place at the right time, but in reality Gates is man who had a tremendous ability to see the direction in which the wind was blowing.

He saw a huge market for developing desktop PC software at a time when everyone was looking to the mainframe, and later he saw a place in the market for a complete productivity suite when everyone else was selling office software piecemeal.

Whether or not you agree with Gates's business tactics and the quality of some of his creations, you have to give credit to his ability to see where the market was headed.

Iain Thomson: The top brass at Microsoft in the 1980s swore to one mantra: 'a computer on every desktop and in every home.' In retrospect they look like underachievers.

I heard an anecdote about Gates years ago. When the news of the Altair came out he shouted at Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen that they'd missed the boat. That's how far he was looking ahead. He dropped out of Harvard to set up Microsoft after seeing that software was where the power is in computers.

But let's not beat around the bush. He's screwed up plenty of times too. Most notably he dismissed the internet early on, and then the company got caught in the Internet Explorer fiasco as a result. But a visionary he most definitely is.

7. Grace Hopper
Iain Thomson: Anyone who thinks computer programming is too complicated should thank their lucky stars for Grace Hopper.

Hopper took the computer programming world and turned it on its head by making it much easier. Why program in machine code, she reasoned, when you could do it in English and then convert it instead? It's that kind of logic that enabled computing to spread so rapidly by making it simple and easy to do.

Her work with the Mark One computer and UNIVAC helped shape a philosophy that computing didn't need to be this complicated, and to prove her point she invented a language to show it was possible. She wasn't just a visionary; she had the skills to back it up.

It's tempting at this point to make some comment about how a woman's mind was needed to see that this was a problem, but I don't think Hopper's vision was anything to do with her being a woman, more that she was an outsider. Cliques in whatever field invent their own languages to maintain group integrity and show up outsiders. Sometimes it needs a level head to come in and say: 'You’re doing it wrong.'

Shaun Nichols: IT has long been considered a boys' club, but the area of computer programming has been profoundly influenced by women. When Charles Babbage was doing his work on the difference engine, his friend Ada Lovelace was conceiving ways to manipulate and perform calculations on it, effectively making her the first person to program a computer.

Grace Hopper has had an even more recent and profound effect on the history of computing. Without her suggestion that programming could be performed in the English language there's a pretty good chance that John Kemeny and Thomas Kurtz would have never thought to devise BASIC, and an entire generation of software developers may have never learned their craft.

It's a shame that the basic science and computer curriculum doesn't do more to touch on the contributions of Hopper, Lovelace and others, because knowing the role that women have played in the development of IT could really help inspire more girls to take an interest in the field, and bring some much-needed female minds into the IT world.

6. Alan Turing
Shaun Nichols: How ahead of his time was Turing? The man developed a test that has not been passed in 60 years. The Turing Test remains the standard for development of artificial intelligence.

But Turing's vision and genius goes far beyond a standard for rating computer intelligence. The man's work in cracking the Enigma code was vital to the Allied victory in World War II, and the development of the Colossus system was a key moment in the birth of computing.

Sadly, Turing's life was cut short when he committed suicide in 1952 after being prosecuted for homosexuality. While it has taken more than half a century, the UK government has finally apologised for its treatment of Turing and rightfully recognised his genius.

Iain Thomson: Turing always struck me as not so much a man ahead of his time, but ahead of his entire species.

Those who knew him describe the man as frustratingly brilliant. He had a mind capable of wrestling with exotic concepts that the rest of the world hadn't even begun to think of, and seeing how they could be put to use. But when it came to common sense he was seemingly as naïve as a child.

This turns out to be not that uncommon with genius-level intelligence. It seems that, if you get your brain onto that kind of level, certain other things have to move aside and make room. It was a crying shame that society hounded Turing to an early death; if he'd got his hands on a modern computer heaven knows what he might have achieved.

5. The Traitorous Eight
Iain Thomson: It’s fair to say that without the 'traitorous eight' Silicon Valley would need a new name.

In 1957 eight employees of Shockley Semiconductor (Julius Blank, Victor Grinich, Jean Hoerni, Eugene Kleiner, Jay Last, Gordon Moore, Robert Noyce and Sheldon Roberts) quit en masse from the company. While this wasn't unprecedented, since Shockley was something of an oddball, the reason was their boss's refusal to consider using silicon as a platform for semiconductors.

The eight formed Fairchild Semiconductor, and two went on to spawn Intel. But they are so high on the list because they saw that things could be done better and, rather than sit around in the coffee room moaning about it, went on and did something about it. The result was the microprocessor.

This was a brave move, considering the times. Semiconductors were a new thing back then and the market for them was uncertain and loaded with pitfalls. But belief in themselves and the future of the industry helped make the modern computing world, and we owe them all a debt of gratitude.

Shaun Nichols: Yes, Iain, without the traitorous eight we would likely be writing this list from frigid Boston or sweltering Texas or some other inclement location. I guess on some level we have to thank Shockley for being such a pill to work with.

It is interesting to consider what would have happened had those eight engineers not jumped ship. Without the change of scenery and freedom to go out and create on their own, would the likes of Moore and Noyce been able to make the breakthroughs they did?

While stories of the creation of companies fills a huge part of the lore of computing history, the destruction and break-up of firms such as ERA (whose founders left to create Control Data Corp) or the defection of the traitorous eight, history would be very, very different.

4. Richard Stallman
Shaun Nichols: The late 1970s saw computing move from a research-heavy medium dominated by the military and universities, to a commercial venture with huge potential for profits. At least one man, however, saw where it was all headed and has spent the past three decades fighting it.

Richard Stallman and the Free Software Foundation (FSF) have become the de facto heads of the open-source software movement. The GNU General Public Licence is a vital standard for free and commercial products, and huge gains in computing have been attributed to the use of free and shared code.

What is a bit ironic is that the vendors that Stallman and the FSF target much of the time are also the ones that reap the biggest rewards from open-source software. Companies such as Microsoft make great use of open-source tools, despite being constantly at odds with its advocates.

Iain Thomson: Stallman is a visionary in the mould of the biblical Abraham, although he's not the type to set fire to his son.

He's a fundamentalist in the best way possible, and even looks the part of the prophet ranting in the wilderness. Software must be free, is his mantra, and his message has gone round the world many times.

Stallman's vision of a world of free software probably won't come to pass in his lifetime. Too many software developers want to make serious money by selling out to a large commercial company, and not enough are willing or able to live the techno-nomad lifestyle that Stallman enjoys.

Nevertheless, Stallman is an important visionary for the computer industry. Free software should always be available to those who want it if the computing world is to be inclusive.

3. Steve Jobs
Iain Thomson: OK, so I'm not Apple's biggest fan, but Jobs deserves his spot on the list. He's a lot of things, and visionary is one of them.

Jobs has seemingly always had a clear vision of where the computing industry is going to go, i.e. exactly where he tells it to. While the rest of the industry refuses to play ball, in the most part his vision has had an enormous effect.

Some cite Apple with the invention of the graphical user interface (GUI). This isn't true because Jobs stole the idea from Xerox PARC, but he saw that they weren't using it and so popularised it himself. The same is true for a host of other areas of computing.

Take the mobile phone industry, for example. It's going to be hard to build a top-level smartphone with buttons in the future because the iPhone showed that it could be done without them. The same is true with touch control and the idea that phones could actually be referred to as sexy by non-geeks.

Jobs has taken a couple of missteps in his time, but he's certainly the man with the plan. Goodness knows what Apple will do when he steps down.

Shaun Nichols: So, by all accounts, Jobs's engineering chops are almost as bad as his people skills. So what really makes him a successful chief executive is his vision, and ability to sell that vision.

In the 1970s he convinced Steve Wozniak, then an emerging engineer, to leave his job and build computers for use in the home, an idea that few people thought had any merit. Later, he scooped up the best engineering minds and convinced them to drop whatever they were working on and hop onboard his Macintosh development team.

Fast forward to the late 1990s when Apple was circling the drain. Jobs was able to sell the company on buying his NeXT operating system and bringing him back as chief executive, at which point he proceeded to clean out the company's product line and introduce a compact, sleek, green plastic-encased machine known as the iMac.

Most recently Jobs's visionary status has been furthered by his championing of the iPod music player, iTunes store and iPhone handset, all huge money spinners for Apple and consumer smash hits.

2. Marc Andreessen
Shaun Nichols: In planning this list, Iain and I were stumped as to how to fill this spot. We knew that it had to be the development of the web, but we couldn't decide on giving the spot to Andreessen or Sir Tim Berners-Lee. Then Iain noted something that ultimately settled the matter.

Back when Andreessen was first developing the browser, Berners-Lee thought that it was a horrible idea. He even told Andreessen that putting images alongside text wasn't the point; that the internet should be text only.

Of course, that didn't happen. Andreessen's idea caught on and, in the years that followed, the internet blossomed from a university research tool into a vital part of world culture.

Iain Thomson: This was an argument that went on for a good half a pint. The father of the web versus the person who opened it up. It's a bit like comparing Enzo Ferrari to Henry T. Ford.

Berners-Lee worked out a way to link huge number of people via simple networking protocols so that they could speak to each other via text and documents in a way that surmounted the ARPANET system. But it was Andreessen who took it to the masses.

The Netscape browser was to the internet what the GUI was to the command line interface, or Grace Hopper to programming. It made computing more mainstream and accessible to someone who, amazingly enough, might not be willing to survive on words alone.

1. Charles Babbage
Iain Thomson: Back in Babbage's day a computer was a cut-rate accountant, someone good with numbers who added them up all day. While this was valuable work, people make mistakes and Babbage thought he could change all that.

It takes a lot of vision to build a 15-ton monster to do just that, but Babbage did it while suffering a slow nervous breakdown due to the loss of his wife, child and father to illness. His difference engine, as he called it, was a masterpiece of engineering and complex thought, but that didn't satisfy him.

Instead he started work on a new project, an analytical engine that was the closest humanity got to a computer in the next 100 years. He never completed it but the finished machine would have been programmable with punch cards. Science writers Bruce Sterling and William Gibson wrote a rather good book, The Difference Engine, that shows some possible effects of Babbage being recognised.

Shaun Nichols: The definition of a visionary is a person who sees where things are headed before anyone else. Babbage saw what has been the most influential technology of the past 100 years, and he saw it a full 100 years before anyone else.

In my book, Babbage ranks right up there with Nikola Tesla on the list of forgotten and underappreciated geniuses. His difference engine is now recognised as the first true computer system, and the second one didn't come around until several decades and two world wars had passed.

For more than 120 years after Babbage's death, the designs for his grand system remained theoretical and no one was certain that it really would be a working computer. Then in 1991 a difference engine was actually constructed and, amazingly enough, it worked perfectly, even more accurately than modern hand-held calculators. Goodness knows what he would have done with an integrated circuit.