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/v3-uk/news/1964725/vint-cerf-talks-generation-internet
26 Sep 2008, Dave Bailey , V3
Google's chief internet evangelist Vint Cerf has set out his view of the internet's future to coincide with the search giant's 10th birthday.
Cerf said on his blog that in the next 10 years "around 70 per cent of the human population will have fixed or mobile access to the internet at increasingly high speeds, up to gigabits per second".
The man often referred to as 'the father of the internet' also presaged a move to the next-generation IP addressing scheme, IPv6, and GPS enablement of household consumer devices.
"Many of the things on the internet, whether mobile or fixed, will know where they are, both geographically and logically," he wrote.
Cerf does not, however, mention bandwidth worries over the internet's capacity and the rapid depletion of IP addresses, currently concerning many countries, including most recently China.
The crystal ball gazing evangelist identified IP as the "glue" connecting devices and services. "The internet will also become more closely integrated with other parts of our daily lives, and it will change them accordingly," said Cerf.
However, appearing to be wearing rose-tinted glasses, Cerf sees IP as a universal control protocol with the power only to do good, but neglects to mention the power this gives to hackers exploiting such inter-connectedness.
Cerf also gets a green angle into his blog, predicting greater energy effic iency. "By sharing information through the internet about energy-consuming and energy-producing devices and systems we will be able to make them more efficient," he declared.
As a company built on the back of advertising Google will also see a big increase in opportunities, Cerf predicts.
"Product placement will become an opportunity for viewers to click on items of interest in the field of view to learn more about them," he wrote.
Cerf pointed the way forward at the end of the blog post, perhaps agreeing with Intel's view that artificial intelligence will become a reality within the next 40 years.
"As we have learned in the past several decades, software is an endless frontier. There is no limit to what can be programmed. If we can imagine it, there is a good chance it can be programmed," he concluded.
Do you agree?
Thank you
dear mr vint cerf. thank you. you have given me a new world to explore and not just me. millions of people are better educated today due to people like yourself. if you made some cash on the way then good luck to you. long life good heath and happines to you and your family.
Posted by Paul Skinner, 26 Sep 2008
70% coverage?
I'm always quite interested in hearing what a well respected Engineer has to say especially about predictions for the future. The issue I have is with where the figure of 70% comes from. If it means that 5 of the 7.5-8 billion predicted people by 2020 will have access does it mean that regions of the planet that do not currently have access to reliable clean water and food supplies will have the internet before the rest of the infrastructure needed for sustainable growth. Even in developed countries where access to satellite or radio internet means that it approaches 100% coverage it does not address the fact that the costs of access may be prohibitive. Nor does he account for Governments and communications companies having to weigh the benefits of high speed internet access against the costs especially in the current economic climate. I was just hoping for more specific reasons for his assertions.
Posted by John, 27 Sep 2008