Cisco tries to pop the WiMax bubble

Cisco chief technology officer Charles Giancarlo

The promise of WiMax wireless wide area networking is largely overrated, according to Cisco chief technology officer Charles Giancarlo.

"Ninety-eight per cent of the population of the developed world is going to be highly wired. We do not think that fixed wireless for the last mile makes a lot of sense," Giancarlo told vnunet.com at Cisco's annual Networkers 2005 user conference.

"Wired technologies are already highly deployed. We do not believe there is a good business model [for WiMax]."

WiMax, or IEEE 802.16, is a high bandwidth, wide range wireless technology that has Intel as its main backer. The chip company touts the wireless standard as a replacement for DSL.

In addition to competing with wired services to homes and businesses, WiMax has to battle against 3G on mobile devices.

Although Nokia earlier this month said that it expects the two technologies to co-exist, Giancarlo conceded that the carriers, not the handset makers, will ultimately decide the fate of WiMax.

WiMax, however, can provide internet services in rural areas that do not currently have access to wired networking. But in the developed world such areas are a few and far between, Giancarlo said.

It could also serve to establish wireless connections between two office buildings, a so-called 'point-to-point' connection.

UK firm Telabria last year started building a commercial WiMax network in the south east of England. But Giancarlo warned that it will be "challenging" to get the technology ready in time.

"While [WiMax] is standard, it is not yet standardised," he argued, pointing out that WiMax currently uses 10 different technologies and has three modulations that all stand between interoperability. "It does not become ubiquitous until it is standardised."

Cisco has stated that it supports WiMax, but is not investing in WiMax radios.

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