Linux may be popping up on an increasing number of desktop PCs, but there is little hope of it becoming a serious player in the PC sector.

Gartner has played down recent high-profile contract wins for Linux-based PCs. The research firm claimed that just because Linux will ship on five per cent of all PCs worldwide in 2004, this does not mean it is being used. Gartner estimated that only two per cent of the total PCs shipped in 2004 will be used with Linux.

Even though the researcher expects that share of Linux PCs shipped to grow to 7.5 per cent by 2008, it claimed that only 3.5 per cent of PCs will actually run Linux.

The controversial report is due in a few weeks and will no doubt add fuel to the 'Windows versus Linux' debate. Gartner said increased Linux sales will be helped by the long-awaited PC replacement cycle, which it claimed will account for 220 million PC sales in 2004 and 2005.

"Not every PC that ships with a version of Linux continues to run with that," said Brian Gammage, research vice-president at Gartner. "[The replacement cycle] will be significant for the Linux vendors, but we don't see them picking up any more than five per cent of the market."

However, UK system builder Compusys is finding Linux on the desktop increasingly popular.

"We are seeing a massive rise in demand for Linux desktops from our customers across all sectors, from universities to corporates," said Terry Fisher, development manager for the HPC division at Compusys.

"It's not about the money either. Businesses are investing in Linux on its own merit, rather than because of any unwillingness to pay Microsoft for more licences. Some customers buy the PCs with Linux and Windows pre-installed, but others just want Linux.

"Linux-based desktops will account for more than 10 per cent of our PC sales in the next 12 months."

crn@vnu.co.uk