Khosla and I spoke last month about his efforts to promote green business.
Matthew Wheeland: How can green IT benefit entrepreneurs, investors
and the environment?
Vinod Khosla: Well, data centres are getting to be huge
consumers of power, and in the home, PCs are starting to be material consumers
of power. Using less power is good for lower energy costs; it's good for higher
lifetime for equipment, less power consumption means less heat, and longer
lifetimes, and higher reliability. So, it saves money; it saves life, and it
saves the environment. Those are all good things.
So when I buy a computer today, I try to see if there is an EPEAT-rated
computer that meets my needs. Some companies, such ase Dell and HP, have started
to do these ratings. They're sort of like a LEED rating for computers. In the
data centre, there's massive opportunities to reduce costs for both energy and
for space, air conditioning, and costs by reducing the power consumption.
Now, there's many, many ways to do that. One could reduce power consumption
by just utilising the computers more. Most CPUs are used, maybe, 10, 20 per cent
of the time. If you can double utilisation, you have half the number of compute
rs, and so you have much better asset utilisation, and less carbon emis sions,
and less energy use per unit of computing. That's very attractive. So,
increasing utilisation is good all around and good for everybody.
You can also design better servers and computers, and that's good for energy
costs. I've heard speculation that the lifetime energy costs of a computer is
starting to be similar or maybe even larger than the cost of the computer.
That's pretty telling. So, there's lots of different options.
At a talk during VMWorld, one thing you said that really caught my
attention is that first and foremost, any green IT solutions will have to save
money or they just won't catch on. Do you think it's been sufficiently proven
that energy efficiency in IT can save money, and that it is now a worthwhile
investment?
I don't think you can make a blanket statement that you can prove it in every
circumstance, but there are many, many situations in which it's become very
clear that it can save money. Many of the companies that started to do energy
audits and carbon audits to try and figure out what they were doing, started
with the intention of being greener but found that it was cheaper, and that's a
very encouraging trend.
It should be. Energy's a big source of emissions, and if you use less energy,
you have much less emissions, but you also have much lower energy costs. That
seems to make sense.
And what else is needed, whether on the technological advancement
side or on the policy side, that would really push green IT into the
limelight?
I think we need a little bit of everything. I don't think there's a magic
solution. We need to design more efficient computers. That's a big deal. We also
need them - when they're not computing - to not use all the power. That has
benefits both in reliability in lifetime, and reduced need for air conditioning,
as well as lower energy.
So, green IT isn't any one thing; it's a lot of different things, and they'll
all have to come together, and each situation's a little bit different.
What tech companies or technologies - both ones you did and didn't invest in
- are most exciting to you or show the most promise right now?
First, we're investing in everything exciting we see, and there's a really
wide range of exciting companies, both renewable fuels, renewable power
generation replace electricity, new materials, and just plain old efficiency
plays. So, in almost all sectors, there's exciting stuff going on. It's very
hard to point to one or two.
Let's talk just briefly about the clean tech side. You were one of
the major supporters of California's Proposition 87 last year, which was
intended to fund clean energy research. The proposition lost by a pretty small
margin as I recall, but do you think the political climate here or across the
country has warmed up to the idea more in the last 12 months?
Well, there's no question people are finally taking this seriously. People in
the past haven't taken green seriously, and part of the reason is green is this
nice-to-do thing, and we know how well people do.
It's a little bit like staying healthy, exercising, losing weight, not eating
high fat diets. All that has changed. Green has gone from something nice to do,
to a crisis and an opportunity. Crisis in we have real issues we need to
address. It's almost like going from yeah, you want to stay healthy, to having a
heart attack and now - yeah, we really need to change our diet.
It's gone to a crisis that calls for immediate action, but equally importan
tly, it's starting to have real opportunities. We talked a little bit about cost
reduction opportunities. I think in the end, going more green would be a
significant economic benefit, and the only way we will get mass adoption is if
it is a significant economic benefit.
And as far as this crisis versus opportunity, it seems to me that at
least on the consumer side, there's more of this crisis mentality than there is
the opportunity mentality. What do you think it's going to take to wake up the
business world - whether it's the majority of businesses or the majority of
businesses' customers - to the fact that this is an opportunity more than it is
a crisis?
Well, I think both things need to happen. Part of the reason - well, there is a
crisis, so I'm glad that's being communicated very well, and the environmental
organisations have been very aggressive about that, very effective in
communicating the message. Now, to an extent, they've also cried wolf a few too
many times, and so for middle America, they lose credibility, but now there's
enough external evidence that this is a crisis, and so people are starting to
take the environmental groups seriously, but they've also pushed technologies
that don't make sense.
So, environmentalists would say, "Let's go to all solar power, even if it
costs $0.50 a kilowatt hour instead of $0.05 a kilowatt hour that it costs today
to produce power with coal." Those kinds of initiatives, which are pushed
irrespective of their economics actually set the movement back.
And so, my focus is make the economics of green work, and then adoption will
be rapid and quick. I believe that will happen, and I think that's where we'll
be headed. We'll have fuels cheaper than oil - renewable fuels cheaper than oil.
We'll have power generation that's cheaper than coal, at least if you include
all the costs of coal to accounting of the cost of coal.
And we'll make efficiency initiatives, because you get a rate of return on
your investment in efficiency, and that's what I'm hoping we'll get to.
And I'm gonna ask about those predictions again, but earlier this
year - I think it was in January in an interview with Reuters, you predicted
that Wall Street would wake up, maybe this year or soon, to the risks of co
ntinuing to invest in coal. Do you think that the TXU buyout from earlier this
year fits into that prediction?
Absolutely. I mean, it's the first example of, "It's a lot easier to accept
it than fight it." And not because it's the right thing to do; it's because it's
the most economic thing to do. The risk of investment in - I'll call them dirty
technologies, is getting so high.
You don't know what legislation would be. How do you make a 50 year
investment in an asset saying it's economics, not knowing what the economics are
going to be? So you just stay away from those kinds of dirty investments.
If carbon ends up at $60, $80 a ton, and each ton of coal produces three tons
of carbon dioxide, you're now talking about coal costing a few hundred dollars a
ton effectively. That's a big problem. So what do you do as an investor? You
decide not to make the investment, because there's too much risk.
Great. So, I guess I would like to ask what your predictions are. Do
you have anything that you'd like to share about where you think we'll be in 18
months, whether in policy, in technology, or - you know, 18 months from now is
three months after the next president takes office. What do you think it'll be
like?
I think - well, 18 months, I would say two years from now we will believe that
there are real and reasonable alternatives to oil. That we will have to take our
time scaling, but the technologies will be there, and they will be cheaper than
oil, even if you make long term forecasts that have the cost of oil decline to
$40 or $50 a barrel.
I have no question, two years from now we will not be debating whether we
have an alternative to oil. That's dramatic reduction in carbon - 50, 80 per
cent reduction in carbon emissions per mile driven, and that are cheaper per
mile driven.
Same thing in electric power, I think we would prove that some of the newer
technologies are very, very cost effective. I think wind has already made a
stake, but wind is considered a toy, because it's so variable. We'll start to
see solutions to the variability of wind, like compressed air storage or other
energy storage.
We will also see alternatives like solar terminal technologies that provide
reliable power the way the utility would like to contract for power, and be cost
effective and close enough to the price of coal there once - one extra puller in
the trajectory which say, "Hey, these can be cheaper than coal".
Matthew Wheeland is the managing editor of Greener World Media. This
interview originally appeared at
Greenbiz.com and as a podcast on
GreenBiz Radio.
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