Microsoft shows it's all in the timing

Microsoft's statement of capitulation to the EU was a masterpiece of timing.

Firstly it was released late on Friday European time, which is the traditional time to dump bad news because fewer people read the news on a Saturday and offices are shut for the weekend.

But there's more to it than that. This proposal is also interesting in how it relates to the Windows 7 launch. The company estimates it would take three to six months to get the balloting software ready and made its proposal just shy of three months from the launch.

Microsoft knows full well that there's almost no chance of a quick decision by the EU on this one. To start off with August is holiday season in mainland Europe and the rate of work slows to a snail's pace as almost everyone heads to the beach.

Secondly there's no real need for the EU to hurry. It has got pretty much what it wanted out of Microsoft and knows that the company wants to settle the issue once and for all.

Meanwhile Microsoft, with yesterday's disappointing earnings release fresh in its mind, will be happy to dump an increasingly expensive legal problem. EU lawyers are not cheap and it looked like the EU wasn't going to be worn down on this one.

So this means the first round of Windows 7 buyers will be getting a browser-less Windows 7, and many will install Internet Explorer anyway because it's easier than the alternatives. It also keeps things simple for OEMs who are preparing to push Windows 7 hard to boost poor sales.

One area of the proposal is slightly worrying. The ballot choice will be available to Windows XP and Vista users it says, but it is unclear on whether the choice will be available to all users retroactively, or just those with software bought after the proposal is accepted.

The layout for the proposed ballot box is interesting too. The mock-up Microsoft provides speaks volumes about how it wants consumers to choose their browser.

Up to ten browsers will be offered, but in a horizontal line - so only the first five or six will show up in the page without scrolling. The order is decided by market share, so naturally Microsoft gets prime position on the rest of the page.

While we're on the ballot page it's worth taking a look at the descriptions given to each browser. I hope one of the conditions the EU imposes will be that the browser manufacturers get to write their own advertising copy.

The ballot is going to hurt Internet Explorer's market share, particularly given the popularity of open source in Europe. We'll expect to see a slow but steady decrease in Internet Explorer's popularity and growth in alternatives.

Much as I like Mozilla I hope the browser market doesn't shake down into a two horse race. Malware writers specialise on particular architectures and a fluid and varied browser market helps make their lives more difficult.

24 Jul 2009