2006 predictions

I had promised myself not to do any New Year's resolutions on this blog. So instead I'll do some baseless guesses about things that could happen.

Yes, you can flame me for each prediction (especially number 3), on the condition that you send a bottle of decent wine for every correct prediction (and two bottles if number 5 turns out to be true).

1. Windows Vista will launch on time. Despite a large marketing campaign, few shoppers will line up for a midnight sale, but the OS by 2008 will rule the world after all.

2. The open source patent debate will get a viable solution when OSDL forms a deterrent patent pool (instead of the patent library on training wheels that they created earlier this year).

3. The iPod's iconic status will fail to drive consumers to the Mac. Investors will call upon Apple to break up the company into separate consumer electronics and computer companies to rid the iPod of the Mac's ballast.

4. After Intel launches its Viiv entertainment platform, consumers will soon find out that they have a simple choice: pay over $600 for a Viiv PC or get a Tivo-like digital video recorder including networking features for free with their cable or satellite television subscription. Viiv will go down history as the "failed attempt to launch a Centrino entertainment copy-cat"

5. Samsung in a surprise move acquires AMD, once and for all putting the firm on the map as a serious Intel competitor.

6. The Sony Playstation 3 will make the Xbox 360 look like one of these Russian made Volga cars in a world full of Ferraris. The folks who ended up paying $3,000 for an Xbox 360 on Ebay will bang their heads against the wall, chanting: "Why, oh why?"

7. Google's valuation will drop significantly after investors realise that advertising revenue alone don't justify the company's valuation.

8. The use of RSS will jump from the current 2 per cent to over 10 per cent after Microsoft releases Internet Explorer 7.

9. Software users will launch a lawsuit against Microsoft after internal documents feed speculation that the company willingly released insecure code to meet a promised launch date.

10. VNU, the parent company of vnunet.com and the publisher of this blog, will have even more newspaper headlines than this year.

That concludes my final posting for this year. I'll be at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas next week and will be posting to our CES Blog. Until then: happy new year.

T52005122008573936

Tags: 2006 predictions, microsoft, apple, open source, OSDL, xbox, playstation, google, AMD, Intel, samsung,

30 Dec 2005

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I’m going to flame you on your choice of wine. Coppola? Great movies… mediocre wine...

Posted by: Penguin 03 Jan 2006

Hi! "sepArate", not "sepErate" (#3)... That's my tiny flame. Happy New Year!!!

Posted by: jean-paul 30 Dec 2005

Not to mention, why would that pressure come from investors? Apple shares have skyrocketed in the last few years, and the P/E has remained as stable as, well, a big ship with lots of ballast (btw, way to one-up the SVS on that analogy, Peter). Prediction for the future? iPod sales continue to increase, Mac sales continue to increase, and the AAPL share price will continue to rise in concert - more slowly than last year, but fast enough to keep the P/E in the mid-forties. Investors love this well-ballasted Apple, there's no way they'll agitate for a split.

Posted by: Milo 30 Dec 2005

Regarding #3, Oh man...are you gonna get flamed... :^) Actually, there are a few problems with theory #3. First, there's this assumption that the Mac department is "ballast." I'd like to remind you that the Mac hardware sales generated more revenue last year than iPod sales. It's even more impressive if you add in the fact that Apple also makes money from peripherals and other hardware (eg, AirPort, iSight) as well as software (eg, Mac OS X, iWork, Final Cut). Add it up. Last quarter, Apple had revenues of $1.2 billion on iPod sales and $265 on iTMS and iPod-related products. Apple had $1.6 billion in Mac hardware, $296 million in peripherals, and $294 million in software. In other words, the Mac and Mac related sales generated over $2 billion in revenue in the last quarter. This versus the $1.4 billion in iPod revenue. So I'm not sure I'd call the Mac "ballast." Next, let's take another step and that is software. All of The Pundits are talking about Apple's push into the living room. The "consumer electronics" company will have a hard time doing that without Mac OS X. Finally, I'd point out that "ballast" is used in ships to stabilize them in a storm. Arguably, the Mac provides that important ballast. Sony didn't just sell Walkmans. Apple splitting into a CE company and a computer company would mean both companies having to duplicate a lot of important people. For example: Which one gets a Jonathan Ives? Design is important for both companies. In short, I don't see investors demanding a split in Apple anytime soon. I could possibly see the courts splitting Apple in some way, based upon the Beatles' Lawsuit. But that's a whole other story...

Posted by: Peter 30 Dec 2005

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