While browsing through the latest news, a new statistic caught my eye.

A Firewire advocacy group known as the 1394 Trade Association put out a statement commending Apple for its decision to put a Firewire 800 port on the back of the new aluminum iMac. It wasn't the statement that was particularly noteworthy, however, so much as the following passage:

"Apple holds about 21 percent of the retail PC market in the U.S.; analysts expect that figure to increase significantly this year and into 2009."

Eyebrows were arched, heads were turned, coffee was spit onto keyboards. Could it really be true? Could Apple's spiking Mac sales over the last year really have caused market share to grow four-fold?

Looks like it was time to put that journalism degree to use...

10 Aug 2007

First we called 1394 Trade Association to see if this might have just been a typo. Nope. They verified the figure, claiming that in the same study HP had logged 37 per cent market share and Dell just 11 percent. 1394 Trade Association noted that the study only looked at consumer retail sales, though that would not account for Dell, which still does nearly all of its sales directly, showing up in the ranking.

If this is true, it would be huge news. Not only has Apple pumped its market share to epic proportions, but the company also moved ahead of Dell, the one time consumer kingpin.

Unfortunately, those figures just don't seem to hold up.

The 1394 Trade Association told vnunet.com that the figures were from a CNBC report citing major analyst firms. A search of the CNBC web site, however revealed no such report. We called CNBC to verify the information, but have yet to receive a response.

Data from two major analyst firms also contradicts the figures. IDC told us that Apple's 2006 retail market share stood at 6.3 per cent, with HP at 27.5 per cent and Dell at 25.5. In the first quarter of 2007, Apple's market share rose to 7.6 per cent and HP's to 32 per cent. A nice gain, but nothing to indicate a shift on the scale suggested in the report. IDC Expects to have the Q2 07 figures within the next couple of weeks, but analyst Doug Bell cautioned that quarterly figures were a less reliable indication than yearly totals.

Gartner did not have specific data on retail sales for Q2 07, but the company's overall figures also cast doubt on the possibility of a huge market share gain from Apple. Overall, HP claims 18.2 per cent and Dell 15 per cent of the market.  Apple still does not crack the top five in the overall market.

More on this as it develops.